The US dollar bounces with weaker German manufacturing data and stronger American employment numbers
Thursday 4 April, 2019
Daily Currency UpdateWe're happy to introduce the new Daily Commentary. A streamlined format highlighting the latest home currency updates, and the key movers affecting markets today. We hope you like it. USD - United States DollarThe US dollar fell yesterday after the ISM non-manufacturing index fell to 56.1 in March from 59.7 in February. This is the weakest number since August 2017. The non-manufacturing sector's growth cooled off in March after strong growth in February. However, the US dollar is already erasing yesterday's losses as Trump will meet China's Vice Premier Liu He later today. It is thought that trade negotiations on core issues are close to an end. This awaited deal will give China until 2025 to maintain promises on commodity purchases and it will allow US firms to own Chinese companies. The move to the upside of the US dollar this morning also shows some skepticism from sophisticated market participants. Despite this Trump’s top economic advisors bragged about progress, they also cautioned that a final deal to end the trade war remains ambiguous. On top of that, the overnight weakness in the euro helped the US dollar to bounce after some bad news from German manufacturing when factory order data for February dropped 8.4 percent YOY. This is the biggest fall since 2009.
Key MoversStrong fundamental news came from a sustained labor market this morning when the release of initial jobless claims - the number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits - dropped to a more than 49-year low last week. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits declined 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 202,000 for the week ending on March 30th. There are also some media reports that Donald Trump isn't happy with Jerome Powell and he is making that clear to the Fed head. Should the market be worried about this? And, could it affect the belief that every central bank has to be independent? Watch for comments from more Federal Reserve speakers including Patrick Harker and Loretta Mester later today.
- USD/CAD: 1.3300 - 1.3370 ▲
- EUR/USD: 1.1203 - 1.1250 ▼
- GBP/USD: 1.3088 - 1.3186 ▼
- AUD/USD: 0.7071 - 0.7143 ▼
- NZD/USD: 0.6722 - 0.6790 ▼