AUD finds support amid weaker USD
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Daily Currency Update
The Australian dollar found support yesterday, bouncing off lows below US$0.6450 amid a broad USD correction. Comments from key Fed officials reminded markets that one month of elevated data was not enough to force the FOMC off the path. Until a firm trend is identified, officials remain committed to the current policy program. Bond markets, equities and risk assets rebounded as treasuries, rates and the USD retreated. The AUD climbed back through US$0.6450 but fell short of US$0.65, marking intraday highs at US$0.6496. Our attentions now turn to RBA Governor, Michelle Bullock as she testifies in front of a senate estimates committee. With central banks globally taking on a more dovish tone, it will be interesting to see if Bullock offers any new insight into RBA rate expectations. A dovish tone will likely put downward pressure on the AUD as our focus shifts to UK GDP data and US retail sales for guidance into the end of the week.Key Movers
The USD retreated through trade on Wednesday, down against all majors except the Great British Pound. Treasuries, rates and the dollar relinquished most of the gains won in the aftermath of Tuesday’s robust CPI report, following comments from Fed officials Goolsbee and Powell. Chicago Fed President, Austin Goolsbee affirmed the Fed’s commitment to controlling inflation but highlighted that the Fed’s main measure of price pressures was the PCE index, not CPI and that one month is not enough to move the Fed off its current path. With Goods and Services inflation trending lower, Powell acknowledged they had expected an elevated CPI read in January and will be looking to upcoming PCE data for context and guidance. With markets giving back gains, our attentions turn now Q4 GDP data out of Japan and the UK with US retail sales and commentary from ECB President, Christine Lagarde dominating the docket. We are also closely monitoring the Bank of Japan and the Japanese Ministry of Finance. Officials indicated Wednesday they stand ready to intervene should the yen continue to depreciate. While the market is accustomed to verbal intervention, a move to correct direction could create significant short-term volatility.Expected Ranges
- AUD/USD: 0.6400 - 0.6550 ▲
- AUD/EUR: 0.6000 - 0.6100 ▲
- GBP/AUD: 1.9250 - 1.9550 ▼
- AUD/NZD: 1.0580 - 1.0720 ▲
- AUD/CAD: 0.8730 - 0.8830 ▲