AUD falls on jobs miss as markets eye US retail data
Daily Currency Update
The British Pound remains directionless after this morning’s Industrial Production and Trade Balance figures, which offered little to offset recent weak UK jobs data. With broader macro themes still in control, sterling is likely to stay sensitive to shifts in global sentiment.The US Dollar is firming amid softer risk appetite following the AUD’s drop. Markets now await key US releases - Retail Sales and Producer Price Index - which will offer a clearer read on inflation and consumer strength after yesterday’s CPI. Strong retail data could lift the USD, while a softer PPI may ease inflation pressures and support risk currencies.
The Euro is treading water, with limited domestic drivers and moves largely shaped by external market trends.
Key Movers
The big mover in the overnight session was the Australian Dollar, which sold off sharply after the release of the Australian jobs report. The unemployment rate spiked unexpectedly to 4.5%, the highest level in nearly four years, while net employment growth missed forecasts. This immediate deterioration in the labour market has caused money markets to dramatically increase their expectations for an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia as early as next month. This "dovish repricing" puts the AUD under severe pressure across its crosses, reversing the resilience seen earlier in the week.Expected Ranges
- GBP/USD: 1.3420 - 1.3460 ▲
- GBP/EUR: 1.15 - 1.1540 ▲
- GBP/AUD: 2.0650 - 2.07 ▲
- EUR/USD: 1.16 - 1.1670 ▲