New Zealand dollar stubbornly holding onto gains above US$0.60 despite stronger US data set

Key Movers

With no tariff headlines to spur direction on Thursday, attentions overnight turned to the European Central Bank for guidance and direction. It was expected to be a non-event with policy makers maintaining the current policy setting, while reiterating the banks wait and see mantra. In many ways this is exactly how it played out, that is until ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference. Lagarde adopted a much more hawkish tone than markets anticipated, indicating the growth conditions will need to deteriorate for further rate cuts to be issued. With the current rate at or near its terminal level and inflation well contained near the 2% target, the banks decision makers seem content in simply monitoring rates, at least until a trade deal is brokered and the impacts of the US tariff agenda are clearer. European yields rose as investors pared back rate cut pricing through the rest of 2025. The euro bounced off intraday lows near 1.1730, rallying to a session high of 1.1782 before correcting back toward 1.1750.

In other news, the yen has been the poorest performing major through the last 24 hours, while the USD DXY index has edged higher as the pound also gave up half a percent, sliding back toward 1.35.

With little of note on today’s macro ticket, our focus remains with tariff and trade news.