Home Daily Commentaries AUD holds above supports and US$0.65

AUD holds above supports and US$0.65

Matt Richardson
Written by
Matt Richardson

Matt Richardson

OFXpert

Matt provides expertise in currency risk management to his clients, drawing from his 14 years of experience in foreign exchange.

| Tuesday 22 July, 2025

Daily Currency Update

The AUD edged higher through trade Monday, elevated by a broadly weaker USD. With little of note on the domestic ticket, the AUD tracked largely sideways through the local session before finding support through overnight trade. With the USD on the back foot, the AUD edged back toward US$0.6525, having tested a break below US$065 to touch session lows at US$0.6498.

With US treasury yields declining across the curve and the USD on the back foot, our attention turns to the RBA minutes. After surprising markets and leaving rates on hold at its July policy meeting, we are keenly attuned to any signals the detailed account may provide as to the direction of future monetary policy moves. With little else of note on the macro calendar through the rest of the week, broader direction will continue to stem from the underlying risk narrative, with US trade policy driving sentiment.

We expect the AUD will continue to trade within recent ranges, bouncing between US$0.64 and US$0.66.

Key Movers

The US dollar underperformed Monday, losing ground against most majors. The dollar index fell 0.5%, led by an advancing yen. The yen was the day’s clear top performer as markets reacted to the weekends' general election result. While the ruling coalition lost its majority in both houses of parliament, Prime Minister Ishiba announced he had no intention of stepping down at this time. The comments suggest some stability in fiscal policy and fuel hopes a trade deal can be reached with the US before the fast approaching August 1 deadline.

The yen recovered losses suffered in the lead up to the election, where markets fearful of increased spending and tax cuts forced the currency lower. In other news, the euro is 0.5% stronger, trading back near 1.17 at 1.1690, while the pound closed higher on the day as well. With little of note on the macroeconomic ticket, direction through the week will likely stem from fluctuations in the risk narrative. US trade policy and the looming August 1 tariff deadline continue to dominate sentiment.

Expected Ranges

  • AUD/USD: 0.6480 - 0.6580 ▲
  • AUD/EUR: 0.5550 - 0.5630 ▼
  • GBP/AUD: 2.0550 - 2.0750 ▲
  • AUD/NZD: 1.0880 - 1.1000 ▲
  • AUD/CAD: 0.8880 - 0.8980 ▼

Written by

Matt Richardson

OFXpert

As a Senior Corporate Client Manager, Matt provides expertise in currency risk management to his clients, drawing from his 14 years of experience in foreign exchange. Matt has clients who he has been working with for over a decade, a testament to his knowledge and dedication in the field. Matt is also a regular contributor on Ausbiz, offering clear and precise updates on currency market trends, showcasing his ability to interpret complex financial data into actionable insights.

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