NZD outpaces major counterparts in strong start to the week
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Daily Currency Update
The New Zealand dollar outperformed on Monday, buoyed by a broad-based USD sell-off and flattening of the domestic yield curve. The NZD pushed back above US$0.60, marking a fresh 2025 high just north of US$0.6040, up more than 1.2% to start the week. Despite domestic markets being closed in observance of the King’s birthday long weekend, the NZD held onto gains and opens this morning only marginally below the overnight high.Moves approaching US$0.6030/40 have been rebuffed over the last 6 weeks, thus we are keenly attuned to any technical marker that might suggest a topside breakout. The NZD not only advanced against the USD but outpaced all other G10 majors. It sits higher against the GBP, euro, yen and AUD this morning.
Our attention turns now to local terms of trade data, Chinese Manufacturing numbers, Eurozone CPI data, and US Jobs reports, while trade and tariff headlines remain key in shaping the underlying risk narrative.
Key Movers
US dollar weakness drove direction through trade on Monday as investors largely ignored an upswing in Treasury yields and instead, focused on growing concerns surrounding the state of the US fiscal position and burgeoning debt burden. Erratic foreign trade policies and Trump's “big beautiful bill” have created an environment of mistrust, prompting investors to seek alternatives to US assets, driving down demand for the USD.With the US dollar on the back foot, the latest ISM manufacturing report helped consolidate the daily downturn, marking a consecutive 3-month period where activity has contracted. The index dipped below the April read and was well short of market estimates, with subindices measuring employment and new orders suggesting the weight of Trump's tariff agenda is beginning to eke into the wider economy. The euro pushed back above 1.14, eyeing 1.1450, while the pound set about consolidating a break above 1.35, and the yen forced the dollar back below 143.
Our attention turns now to Chinese Manufacturing numbers, Eurozone CPI data and the latest Jolts Jobs openings report ahead of Friday’s non-farm payroll numbers. While trade and tariff headlines remain key in shaping the underlying risk narrative.
Expected Ranges
- NZD/USD: 0.5950 - 0.6080 ▲
- NZD/EUR: 0.5200 - 0.5300 ▲
- GBP/NZD: 2.2300 - 2.2600 ▼
- NZD/AUD: 0.9250 - 0.9320 ▲
- NZD/CAD: 0.8180 - 0.8320 ▲