NZD finds support to outperform other majors
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Daily Currency Update
The New Zealand dollar outperformed through trade on Monday, climbing three-tenths of a per cent on last week's close. Having suffered a horror run through the last month, culminating in a fresh two-year low last week, the NZD finally found support bouncing off US$0.5759 and trading back toward US$0.5790. Domestic services data showed an encouraging 3-point lift in November, yet softer manufacturing numbers did little to boost expectations for a rebound in GDP activity.Growth remains below trend and we expect the RBNZ will need to continue lowering rates through the early part of 2025. Our attention turns to the NZ government's half-year fiscal update. We anticipate it will reflect the weaker economic backdrop. Offshore UK labour data, the German IFO survey, Canadian CPI numbers and US retail sales data headline a crowded macro ticket.
Key Movers
Price action among currencies was well contained through Monday with the USD DXY index maintaining a narrow trading handle, edging just one-tenth of a per cent lower. The Japanese yen was the day's underperformer, giving up 0.3% with little obvious catalyst. Global PMI’s were mixed with services data printing higher while manufacturing activity slowed. European Services data surprised investors, climbing back into expansionary territory after a softer print in November.The euro climbed off lows below 1.05, to mark intraday highs just above 1.0520. Our attention now turns to German IFO and ZEW surveys, UK labour data, Canadian CPI and US retail sales as key markers headlining a crowded macro ticket.
Expected Ranges
- NZD/USD: 0.5750 - 0.5830 ▲
- NZD/EUR: 0.5450 - 0.5550 ▲
- GBP/NZD: 2.1700 - 2.2100 ▲
- NZD/AUD: 0.9020 - 0.9120 ▲
- NZD/CAD: 0.8180 - 0.8280 ▲