Home Daily Commentaries CAD holds strong against USD ahead of tomorrow’s CPI data release

CAD holds strong against USD ahead of tomorrow’s CPI data release

Daily Currency Update

Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is set to be reported tomorrow with the forecast for year-over-year inflation to match the previous 4% rise. The CAD was up 0.28% against the USD today ahead of tomorrow’s data release. Manufacturing sales for August were reported at 0.7%. This was lower than the forecasted 1.1%. The port strike in British Columbia on manufacturing activities was smaller in August compared to July. Only 8.4% of manufacturing plants reported impact from the strike, mainly through shortages of raw materials and transportation disruptions. Wholesale sales month-over-month came in at 2.3%, this was just slightly lower than the forecasted 2.5% rise. Results from the Bank of Canada (BoC) business outlook survey showed that firms expect their sales growth to be soft over the next 12 months.

Key Movers

The US dollar Index (DXY) was down -0.33% this morning to trade near 106.37. The Empire State manufacturing index data was better than the expected dip of -6.4, but still diminishing at -4.6. This shows that business activity edged lower in New York state after a previous reading of 1.9 in September. Markets have become more confident that the Federal Reserve is done raising rates, but with geopolitical risks in the Middle East that could affect the energy crisis going into the winter season, speculations are emerging about another rate hike to bring inflation closer to its 2% target.

The EUR/USD pair has dipped slightly over the last several days to trade near 1.0549 this morning. The Eurozone region trade balance was recorded at $6.7 billion, above the previous $6.5 billion.

Early on Monday, crude oil was steady as uncertainty grew in the Middle East. Military activity in the region is adding to concerns about oil supply availability.

The GBP remains steady today trading at 1.2184 against the USD ahead of UK inflation data which is set to be released on Wednesday.

Japanese industrial monthly production was released at -0.7%. This data was worse than the forecasted and previous 0% change.

Expected Ranges

  • EUR/CAD: 1.4335 - 1.4386 ▲
  • GBP/CAD: 1.6553 - 1.6618 ▲
  • AUD/CAD: 0.8590 - 0.8640 ▲
  • USD/CAD: 1.3612 - 1.3657 ▼