Home Daily Commentaries NZD finds support as Bank of England comes to the Rescue

NZD finds support as Bank of England comes to the Rescue

Thursday 29 September, 2022

Daily Currency Update

The New Zealand dollar mounted a recovery through trade on Wednesday as turmoil again enveloped currency markets. The fallout from the UK Chancellor Kwarteng’s free-spending fiscal stimulus program continued through the domestic session driving investors out of risk assets and forcing the NZD toward new lows below US$0.56. Having touched fresh intraday lows and new 30-month lows at US$0.5575, the NZD seemed set on plumbing new depths before the Bank of England stepped in to protect the UK debt market. The effect was instant, prompting a significant normalisation in UK rates and improvement in the underlying risk narrative. The NZD climbed steadily through the overnight session advancing almost 3% before meeting resistance on moves approaching US$0.5730. With little of note on today’s macroeconomic ticket, our attentions remain on the UK and price action across the rates market. At the same time, The People’s Bank of China’s fixing of the CNY will be critical in defending further near-term depreciation; a move above US$7.25 could have a spillover effect and dampen demand for the NZD as a proxy. In an increasingly jittery market, stability and improved risk aversion could help the NZD stave off another sharp downturn.

Key Movers

Turmoil enveloped currency markets through trade on Wednesday, prompting wild price action and elevated volatility across major currencies. Risk appetite plumbed new lows through the Asian session as investors chased haven assets amid a souring demand for risk. The UK was again the epi-centre as market fears that rapidly rising UK gilts would prompt a 2008-style financial crisis drove investors toward haven assets. The pound fell to intraday lows at £1.0550 while the euro appeared set on consolidating a break below €0.96, touching €0.9539. Amid concerns the UK credit crunch would begin impacting broader credit conditions, the Bank of England stepped in to defend the debt market. Policy makers announced a short-term program of long-date UK gilt purchases. The effect was instant, with UK rates turning lower and the GBP surging higher. Having moved through £1.09, the GBP has steadied and currently buys £1.0880. Buoyed by the recovery in the GBP and a normalisation across the UK rates market, the euro surged back through €0.97, finding added support in more hawkish commentary from key European Central Bank officials. The push for a 75-basis point rate adjustment at the October meeting continued to gather momentum and helped the Euro mark new intraday highs at €0.9750. Our attentions remain on the UK and unfolding performance across the rates market while German inflation data headlines the macroeconomic ticket. With annual price pressures expected to extend beyond 10%, a surprise to the upside could drive calls for a supersized 100-point European Central Bank rate adjustment.

Expected Ranges

  • NZD/USD: 0.5570 - 0.5780 ▲
  • NZD/EUR: 0.5830 - 0.5930 ▲
  • GBP/NZD: 1.8720 - 1.9220 ▼
  • NZD/AUD: 0.8710 - 0.8830 ▲
  • NZD/CAD: 0.7670 - 1.785 ▲