Home Daily Commentaries US dollar trades quietly before Fed release

US dollar trades quietly before Fed release

Wednesday 27 July, 2022

Daily Currency Update

This morning, despite the better-than-expected Durable Goods Orders data, there was little change to the US dollar. Later today, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to increase rates by 75 basis points for a second straight meeting in a very aggressive move. The market would be surprised if the FOMC raises its Fed fund rate by a different number. Any change in the FOMC language and forward guidance might influence the US dollar as well.

Key Movers

In Europe, the German IFO Business Climate survey showed its worst reading since June 2020. Consumer confidence figures came in below forecasts in Germany as well. Furthermore, the focus in Europe is still on gas. Europe agreed to cut gas usage by 15%, and Russia delivered less gas to Europe today in a further escalation of an energy interruption between Russia and the European Union. The EURUSD pair continues to be under pressure, but the FOMC release later today might have the most significant impact this week. The Sterling was likely bolstered further by the return of greater political certainty, albeit the two candidates, Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss, will need to go head to head.

Expected Ranges

  • EUR/USD: 1.0110 - 1.0169 ▲
  • GBP/USD: 1.2017 - 1.2083 ▲
  • AUD/USD: 0.6917 - 0.6955 ▼
  • USD/CAD: 1.2850 - -0.7103 ▼