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Headlines dominated by Russia and Ukraine

Daily Currency Update

Geopolitical concerns between Ukraine and Russia have continued to dominate the headlines over the past 24 hours and have been the main driver on currency movement this week. The build up of Russian forces near the border to Ukraine has risen the potential for military conflict. This has supported US dollar gains against both the EUR and GBP yesterday, as the US dollar is bought as a safe haven option in times of uncertainty. GBP/USD touched a daily low of 1.3500 early Monday morning and EUR/USD saw a session low yesterday evening, reaching 1.1288. The US dollar gains have reversed overnight after Ukraine president called for a day of unity for February 16, the day believed Russia could invade.


Earlier this morning, UK released its labor data with its December unemployment rate remaining at 4.1%, but its January claimant count falling by almost 32,000. This was much better than expected. Sterling touched 1.3565 on the news and touched 1.1960 against the Euro. All eyes for pound movement will now turn to the key data release tomorrow, consumer price index year-on-year.

Key Movers

Europe is expected to announce its estimate for fourth-quarter Eurozone GDP at 10am. There are also December unemployment numbers from the bloc as well as the German ZEW economic sentiment release for February. The EUR has seen a volatile couple of weeks against the GBP and USD with hints of interest rate hikes being used to challenge their own inflationary concerns. However, this sentiment has eased over the last week with comments from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warning that the Governing Council would harm the economy’s rebound from the pandemic if it were to rush to tighten monetary policy. This has seen GBP/EUR push back up to 1.1975 at the highs and EUR/USD continues to trade under 1.1400.

Expected Ranges

  • GBP/USD: 1.3510 - 1.3590 ▲
  • GBP/EUR: 1.1910 - 1.1990 ▲
  • GBP/AUD: 1.8920 - 1.9050 ▼
  • EUR/USD: 1.1290 - 1.1370 ▲