Daily Currency Update
CAD - Canadian DollarThe job losses due to social and physical distancing measures put in place to level the curve in COVID-19 cases has caused lost jobs and raises an epidemic of joblessness when it comes to the Canadian employment environment. Statistics Canada reported as many as 1.1 million Canadian lost jobs in March, with 474,000 in full-time positions. With employment falling, this pushed up the unemployment rate to 7.8% in March vs estimates at 7.5%. Another critical barometer for the loonie is the price of oil. Crude oil is in focus today with a virtual meeting between OPEC and Non-OPEC members to discuss production cuts to curb the global supply glut as demand globally for oil is down significantly due to the COVID-19 pandemic and a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia. WTI is up 5.00% today 26.35 ahead of any significant news about today's meeting. Market participants may be viewing the cut to supply as a no brainer as every global storage mechanism is full or at near capacity. The Canadian dollar against the greenback is trading at the first support level of 1.3930-40 and break here sight next support at 1.3888. On the reverse side of the USDCAD pair resistance is seen at 1.3990-1.4000 and a break higher sights 1.4077-84.
Key Movers
The US dollar edged higher through trade on Wednesday when measured against a basket of significant counterparts. Despite suffering substantial losses against critical risk and commodity-driven currencies, the US dollar index crept upward, buoyed by gains against the Yen and Euro. The Euro fell back below 1.09 as finance ministers failed to agree on terms for an integrated package of support for companies, governments and individuals across the region. A proposed common European bond was rejected by some countries with the Netherlands insisting that a blank cheque approach to lending was not acceptable, and conditions must apply. Such demands were refuted by Italy, as the Italian government is not prepared to accept such terms for fear of the political consequences at home and the restrictions it would place on their ability to rebound from this crisis in the months and years ahead. Talks are set to resume today.
Expected Ranges
- USD/CAD: 1.3930 - 1.4077 ▼
- GBP/CAD: 1.7347 - 1.7481 ▲
- EUR/CAD: 1.5205 - 1.5318 ▲
- AUD/CAD: 0.8704 - 0.8829 ▲
- NZD/CAD: 0.8494 - 0.8407 ▲