Pound rallies following key MRP poll
Thursday 28 November, 2019
Daily Currency UpdateGBP - British PoundGBP/USD has pushed higher overnight following the release of a key YouGov multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) poll last night. It showed the Conservatives being ahead by a whopping 65 seats, meaning the Tories winning 359 seats from 650 available, which if it did happen, would be the best result for the party since Thatchers '87 win. The poll predicted the Tories losing their majority in 2017 so is well respected and taken more seriously than some others.Cable ripped up through the 1.29 figure to 1.2950 and GBP/EUR pushed up to 1.1750 on the news.With it being Thanksgiving in the U.S. today and with many traders and market participants taking the Friday as a holiday too, it may make for a fairly subdued end to the week. That said, thinner trading conditions may make for some odd moves in a few currency pairs, but it's unlikely to be anything sustained.
Key MoversThe dollar had a good day yesterday as a second reading of GDP came in better than the first, when no change was expected. Q3 growth rose from 1.9% to 2.1%. Also, both Durable Goods and Core Durable Goods Orders beat estimates, coming in at 0.6% growth. These readings pushed EUR/USD under the 1.10 handle for the first time in two weeks.USD/JPY pushed up to 109.50 on the news. However, it has since dipped as Donald Trump signed 'The Human Rights and Democracy Act' into law, which mandates an annual review to check if Hong Kong has enough autonomy to justify its special status with the US. Mr Trump said he signed the law "out of respect for President Xi [Jinping], China, and the people of Hong Kong". On the back of this, equities are down around the world as it casts more of a shadow on ongoing US/China trade talks.
- GBP/EUR: 1.1710 - 1.1780 ▲
- GBP/AUD: 1.9020 - 1.9250 ▲
- GBP/NZD: 2.0050 - 2.0240 ▲