Home Daily Commentaries Business Confidence lurches lower forcing NZD into tailspin

Business Confidence lurches lower forcing NZD into tailspin

Daily Currency Update

The New Zealand Dollar fell sharply through trade on Thursday, loosing almost 100 points and closing the days worst performer. ANZ’s business confidence report showed corporate assuredness had collapsed to levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis, which in turn fostered a decline in investment and employment intentions casting a cloud over near-term growth expectations. The poor print comes on the back of Dovish RBNZ currency prompting markets to increase expectations the monetary policy committee will cut the OCR within the next 12 months.

Plunging through 0.67 and 0.6650 losses were compounded by a broader market wide risk off tone. Weakness across emerging markets, led by the Argentina’s request to bring forward the release of specialised bailout funding, prompting a further run on other emerging market assets and wider flight to safety. The move toward haven assets saw the NZD touch intraday lows at 0.6635 and with little of note on the macroeconomic docket Friday attentions and direction remain influenced by ongoing fluctuations in risk appetite.

Key Movers

The Australian Dollar finds itself below the 0.73 handle again after another horrendous day backed by trade war concerns. Opening this morning at 0.7262, the Aussie was also unsupported by domestic news with Westpac’s mortgage rate hike, weaker Capex and falling building approvals all conspiring to add to the sell off.

Starting at home, Private Capital Expenditures posted a nasty decline of 2.5% against an expected increase of 0.6%, implying slowing business investment in Australia. Rounding out a rough day for the Australian economy was further declines in building approvals with a reading of -5.2% against an expected decline of -2.2%. Earlier in the week, Westpac also reported their mortgage rate increase which didn’t help concerns over the Australian economy either. The market rapidly unwound from its highs of 0.7362 earlier in the week.

Adding fuel to the fire however was further comments from President Trump who outlined his commitment to further Tariffs on China. Market optimism that a reconciliation was around the corner quickly evaporated as Trump put those thoughts to bed. The risk-on sentiment quickly shifted to risk-off with emerging markets and commodity currencies bearing the brunt of investor concern.

The Australian Dollar now limps to the close of the week with little on the economic calendar to digest. All eyes will be fixed on the Headlines for direction moving into September.

The Great British Pound enjoyed sustained upward momentum through trade on Thursday as rhetoric from Europe and London suggests a bespoke deal can be reached. The Pound largely held onto moves above 1.30 briefly edging lower as broader risk-off sentiment drove the USD higher.

Sterling touched one-week highs against the Euro forcing the 19-nation single currency back below 0.90 pence as markets garnered fresh hopes a “no-deal” Brexit will be avoided following comments from top Negotiators. The comments have added to recent GBP volatility making it increasingly expensive for sterling bears to hold short positions with the more aggressive shorts unwound helping to consolidate the recent upturn. That said, despite the shift in rhetoric this week a definitive Brexit deal is still some way off and the spectra of a no deal divorce continues to cap upside moves.

Attentions today remain with ongoing Brexit developments.

The United States Dollar finds itself in positive territory for the first time this week as President Trump outlined another escalation over the trade war with China. The US Dollar Index opens this morning at 94.70, a marginal increase of 0.18% across a basket of currencies.

It what was an otherwise slow day on the economic calendar, the US Core PCE Deflator for July came in at 2% y/y as widely expected, barely registering with investors. The heavy hitting impact came from its usual source this year with President Trump announcing that the next round of US tariffs on China will be proceeding unimpeded. Markets reacted as expected with emerging market currencies depreciating significantly on the news. Safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen and US Dollar all appreciated against their counterparts, highlighting market concerns over the trade spat. Adding to the concerns was Argentina, with President Macri’s surprise request to the IMF to speed up its release of their $50bn bailout package. In what is an alarming development, Argentina’s 60% interest rates have failed to stem the depreciation, exacerbating concerns on emerging markets and supporting the US Dollar.

The Greenback now turns its attention to another quiet day on the economic calendar with the focus squarely placed on the headlines.

The Euro held above the 1.17 handle during the Asian session on Thursday however, as the European markets opened the pair was unable to hold on and saw a steady decline down to 1.6417 vs the U.S Dollar. The catalyst behind the move was a drop in EU Business and Consumer Confidence numbers, the survey reported economic confidence dropped to 111.6 in August which was worse than expected of 111.9. Confidence numbers have been declining for the past few months after topping a high of 115.3 in January. The business climate indicator also weakened from 1.30 to 1.22. Meanwhile, consumer confidence was unrevised at -1.9 but still down from the -0.5 reading in July.

Meanwhile, German unemployment numbers for August remained unchanged at 5.2%, the rate has been steady now for the past 3 months.

Looking ahead all eyes will be focused on the preliminary inflation data for August which is out later today. Inflation data is forecast to show a 2.1% rise in broad inflation and 1.1% in core inflation which leaves out volatile food and fuel components compared to a year ago. The Eurozone unemployment rate in July will also be released at the same time, and is forecast to show a 8.2% rise from 8.3% previously. A stronger-than-expected unemployment print would also be expected to impact positively on the Euro as it reflects a healthier economy, which makes foreign investors more likely to invest in the region, increasing inflows and therefore demand for the currency.

The Canadian Dollar slipped back below 0.77 through trade on Thursday despite ongoing and increasing optimism surrounding NAFTA negotiations. Talks between the US and Canada are reportedly progressing quickly and there is still an open possibility an in-principal agreement will be found before the US imposed deadline this week.

Despite upbeat trade expectations the CAD moved sharply lower after month on month GDP growth stalled, printing below expectations and reducing the likelihood the Bank of Canada will raise rates again before years end. Consolidating moves below 0.7750 the loonie edged below 0.77 to touch 0.7692 as broader risk-off sentiment forced a shift toward haven assets, driving the USD higher.

With little of note on the economic docket into the weekly close attentions remain squarely focused on ongoing trade discussions.

Expected Ranges

  • NZD/AUD: 0.9070 - 0.9190 ▼
  • GBP/NZD: 1.9350 - 1.9650 ▲
  • NZD/USD: 0.6580 - 0.6730 ▼
  • NZD/EUR: 0.5630 - 0.5740 ▼
  • NZD/CAD: 0.8530 - 0.8730 ▼