Home Daily Commentaries EUR/USD remains under 1.11 as markets look ahead to Fed rate decision

GBP/USD briefly touched 1.28 yesterday as it fell on the back of a worse than expected UK July Flash PMI prints. Both the manufacturing and services surveys slipped further than expected with the manufacturing reading of 45 the lowest of 2023. The services survey showed 51.1 heading closer to the 50 level that divides expansion and contraction. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence commented in the report that “The UK economy has come close to stalling in July which, combined with gloomy forward-looking indicators, reignites recession worries.” He added, “Rising interest rates and the higher cost of living appear to be taking an increased toll on households.” If the report is to be believed we could be nearing a point where the UK economy is finally beginning to crack on the back of the Bank of England’s aggressive rate hiking cycle that has been enacted to reign in decades-high inflation. Despite this fairly gloomy read GBP/USD and GBP/EUR is relatively unchanged this morning, likely because markets are possibly expecting a dovish message from the US Federal Reserve at tomorrow night’s policy decision and the eurozone PMIs were even worse than the UK’s. GBP/USD trades at 1.2860 and GBP/EUR is around 1.16.

Home Daily Commentaries GBP/EUR hits six month low as UK economy grinds to a halt

GBP/EUR dipped to its lowest level in six months on Friday touching 1.1421. The pair had traded between 1.15 and 1.1750 for most of the summer however has slipped lower over recent weeks as market sentiment regarding the pound sours. Although we may be unlikely to see a big sell-off in GBP recent data has pointed to an economy that is at best flatlining with the first estimate of third-quarter GDP showing exactly this when it was released on Friday morning. Zero growth was seen for the July – Sept period compared to the three months prior. This was actually better than the -0.1% contraction that was expected however the pound fell in the aftermath of the print. GBP/USD also dropped and briefly traded under 1.22 before paring its losses. Some recent dollar weakness has supported GBP/USD as the consensus grows that the US Federal Reserve has now finished with its interest rate hiking cycle. How long rates are held before being cut will now be the area of interest from The Fed as well as the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. This week sees plenty of top-tier data including UK inflation and Retail Sales m/m which are due for release on Wednesday and Friday morning respectively. GBP/EUR is currently around 1.1450 with GBP/USD at 1.2240.