Home Daily Commentaries New Zealand dollar trades above US$0.58

New Zealand dollar trades above US$0.58

Brett Ottawa
Written by
Brett Ottawa

Brett Ottawa

OFXpert

Brett brings a wealth of experience, boasting more than 15 years in the foreign exchange market.

| Monday 14 April, 2025

Daily Currency Update

The New Zealand dollar is stronger this morning when valued against the Greenback currently trading at 0.5816 at time of writing. The uptick of the pair is bolstered by broad US dollar (USD) weakness amid persistent economic concerns due to escalating tariff tensions. Last week on the data front the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its April meeting on Wednesday amid a steady decline in inflation and weakening domestic economic conditions. Analysts anticipate the RBNZ to deliver a deeper 50 bps cut, with markets factoring in the possibility of up to 100 bps in further easing by 2025. This, in turn, might cap the upside for the New Zealand dollar (NZD) in the near term. Looking ahead this week and today we will see the release of both the BusinessNZ Services Index and monthly Visitor Arrivals. On Tuesday we will see the release of the Food Price Index (FPI). Although food is among the most volatile consumer price components, this indicator garners some attention because New Zealand's major inflation data is released on a quarterly basis. Finally, all eyes this week will be on Thursday's Consumer Price Index (CPI). Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.

 

Key Movers

The US dollar Index (DXY) continued to slide in Friday’s session, falling near the 100 area after setting a new three-year low earlier in the day. The downtrend reflects a broad deterioration in investor confidence as fresh data and central bank commentary paint a gloomy picture for the United States (US) economy. On the data front on Friday U.S. consumer sentiment deteriorated sharply in April and 12-month inflation expectations surged to the highest level since 1981 amid unease over escalating trade tensions that have roiled financial markets and raised the risk of a recession. The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said on Friday that the slump in sentiment to the lowest level in nearly three years was "pervasive and unanimous" across age, income, education, geographic region and political party affiliation. Beijing on Friday retaliated with a 125% tariff of its own. Trump has maintained a 10% blanket duty on almost all U.S. imports as well as a 25% tariff on motor vehicles, steel and aluminium, leaving businesses and consumers bracing for a burst in inflation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average caught another bid on Friday, just enough to muscle the Dow Jones back above the 40,000 handle to round out an incredibly volatile week. The DJIA hit 16-month lows near 36,600 before surging back into the high side on geopolitical headlines.

Expected Ranges

  • NZD/USD: 0.5700 - 0.5900 ▲
  • NZD/EUR: 0.5000 - 0.5200 ▲
  • GBP/NZD: 2.2200 - 2.2400 ▼
  • NZD/AUD: 1.0650 - 1.0850 ▲
  • NZD/CAD: 0.7950 - 0.8150 ▼

Written by

Brett Ottawa

OFXpert

Brett brings a wealth of experience, boasting more than 15 years in the foreign exchange market. He started his foreign exchange career with OFX more than a decade ago, as a private dealer catering to individual clients. He later transitioned to the corporate sector, assuming the position of Corporate Senior Relationship Manager. What truly excites Brett is the opportunity to engage with people, supporting their business growth and sharing in their successes.

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