Home Daily Commentaries Aussie dollar trades above US$0.62

Aussie dollar trades above US$0.62

Daily Currency Update

The Australian dollar is stronger this morning when valued against the Greenback currently trading at 0.6290 at time of writing. The bullish tone for the Aussie emerges as the US dollar (USD) continues to weaken across the board, dragged by lower-than-expected economic data and growing investor concern over inflation and trade policy. While momentum is cautiously improving, the broader trend remains technically bearish, with resistance zones limiting additional upside for now. Last week on the data front the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell 6% in April, to 90.1 from 95.9 in March. The index is based on five sub-indices, two tracking assessments of family finances, two tracking expectations for the economy and one on whether now is 'a good time to buy a major household item'. The 'family finances vs a year ago' sub-index registered a sharp 8.5 percent fall to 70.2 in April. Likewise, the 'family finances, next 12 months' sub-index declined 6.2 percent to 101.6. Consumers were less confident about the prospect of further interest rate cuts. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Mortgage Rate Expectations Index, which measures expectations for variable mortgage rates over the coming twelve months, rose 11.3 percent to 98.1. Looking ahead this week and on Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. A detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates. On Thursday the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the unemployment rate figures. The jobless rate is expected to increase from 4.1% to 4.2%.

Key Movers

The US dollar Index (DXY) continued to slide in Friday’s session, falling near the 100 area after setting a new three-year low earlier in the day. The downtrend reflects a broad deterioration in investor confidence as fresh data and central bank commentary paint a gloomy picture for the United States (US) economy. On the data front on Friday U.S. consumer sentiment deteriorated sharply in April and 12-month inflation expectations surged to the highest level since 1981 amid unease over escalating trade tensions that have roiled financial markets and raised the risk of a recession. The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said on Friday that the slump in sentiment to the lowest level in nearly three years was "pervasive and unanimous" across age, income, education, geographic region and political party affiliation. Beijing on Friday retaliated with a 125% tariff of its own. Trump has maintained a 10% blanket duty on almost all U.S. imports as well as a 25% tariff on motor vehicles, steel and aluminum, leaving businesses and consumers bracing for a burst in inflation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average caught another bid on Friday, just enough to muscle the Dow Jones back above the 40,000 handle to round out an incredibly volatile week. The DJIA hit 16-month lows near 36,600 before surging back into the high side on geopolitical headlines.

Expected Ranges

  • AUD/USD: 0.6200 - 0.6400 ▲
  • AUD/EUR: 0.5450 - 0.5650 ▲
  • GBP/AUD: 2.0500 - 2.0700 ▼
  • AUD/NZD: 1.0650 - 1.0850 ▲
  • AUD/CAD: 0.8600 - 0.8800 ▼

Written by

Brett Ottawa

OFXpert

Brett brings a wealth of experience, boasting more than 15 years in the foreign exchange market. He started his foreign exchange career with OFX more than a decade ago, as a private dealer catering to individual clients. He later transitioned to the corporate sector, assuming the position of Corporate Senior Relationship Manager. What truly excites Brett is the opportunity to engage with people, supporting their business growth and sharing in their successes.