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Will the RBA and BoE follow the Fed and the ECB?

Daily Currency Update

Last week markets saw both the Fed and the ECB hike by 25 bps. We are due to see the RBA and BoE release their monetary policies this week. Expectations are that the BoE is likely to hike by 25 bps whereas the RBA's decision is up in the air. Economists believe the RBA will hike by 25 bps, but markets only see a 15.5% chance of this currently.

German Retail Sales declined by 1.6% YoY in June versus an expected fall of 6.3%. EURUSD is unmoved by the news this morning sitting around the 1.1010 mark.

Key Movers

Markets are relatively quiet today on the data front with Eurozone CPI due to release this morning which is expected to fall to -0.1% from 0.3% MoM. Eyes turn to later in the week with the BoE's interest rate decision and Governor Bailey's accompanying speech.

Expected Ranges

  • GBP/USD: 1.2815 - 1.2890 ▲
  • GBP/EUR: 1.1635 - 1.1700 ▲
  • GBP/AUD: 1.900 - 1.955 ▼
  • EUR/USD: 1.0945 - 1.1055 ▼