Home Daily Commentaries NZD marks new 2025 high as tariff storm abates

NZD marks new 2025 high as tariff storm abates

Matt Richardson
Written by
Matt Richardson

Matt Richardson

OFXpert

Matt provides expertise in currency risk management to his clients, drawing from his 14 years of experience in foreign exchange.

| Tuesday 18 February, 2025

Daily Currency Update

With US markets closed in observance of Presidents Day, price action was largely muted to start the week and the NZD traded within a narrow range. The NZD marked a new 2025 high of US$0.5750 through the domestic session but was unable to hold onto gains edging lower and tracking between US$0.5725 and US$0.5750 through overnight trade. With little of note on the macroeconomic agenda, markets seemed content to sideline major bets and enjoy a reprieve from the storm that has been Trump's tariff agenda.

While the announcement of reciprocal tariffs opens the door to a larger US tariff agenda. The delay in implementation has spurred hopes that many of the punitive measures suggested will merely be used as bargaining tools and the final tariff program will not be nearly as punitive as first feared. That said, the NZD remains increasingly vulnerable to changes in the Tariff narrative and we look to key dates through March and April for further guidance.

Our attention today turns to the RBA policy announcement, UK labour market data and Canadian inflation numbers.

Key Movers

The yen was Monday’s mover, up a little more than half a per cent against the USD, forcing the dollar back below 151.50. Q4 GDP data printed stronger than expected, supporting calls for the Bank of Japan to continue lifting rates through 2025. Markets are now pricing for rates to rise to 1% by the end of the year, their highest level in 15 years. With US markets closed for Presidents Day, price action across other majors was largely muted.

The euro tested a break above 1.05 but was unable to sustain the move, while the British pound pushed through 1.26, touching intraday highs just short of 1.2635. With the USD on the back foot last week, our attentions turn to UK Labour Data, Canadian CPI numbers, Germany’s ZEW survey and commentary from key Fed officials.

Expected Ranges

  • NZD/USD: 0.5680 - 0.5780 ▲
  • NZD/EUR: 0.5400 - 0.5500 ▲
  • GBP/NZD: 2.1800 - 2.2200 ▲
  • NZD/AUD: 0.8950 - 0.9080 ▲
  • NZD/CAD: 0.8100 - 0.8200 ▲

Written by

Matt Richardson

OFXpert

As a Senior Corporate Client Manager, Matt provides expertise in currency risk management to his clients, drawing from his 14 years of experience in foreign exchange. Matt has clients who he has been working with for over a decade, a testament to his knowledge and dedication in the field. Matt is also a regular contributor on Ausbiz, offering clear and precise updates on currency market trends, showcasing his ability to interpret complex financial data into actionable insights.