Home Daily Commentaries Future rate cut anticipation eases amid high CPI data release

Future rate cut anticipation eases amid high CPI data release

Daily Currency Update

The USD/CAD pair rose slightly this morning by around 0.06% to the 1.3658 level. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the average price change of various goods and services, rose 2.9% year-over-year in May. This was up from a 2.7% gain in April. This acceleration in the headline CPI was largely due to higher prices for services, which rose 4.6% in May following the 4.2% increase in April. This resurgence in inflation is likely to make the Bank of Canada (BoC) more cautious about further rate cuts. Earlier this month, the BoC cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75% and signalled that more rate cuts would come if inflation continued to slow as expected. In oil news, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil was down by around -0.14% this morning at the 81.947 level.

Key Movers

The US Dollar Index (DXY) was up by around 0.25% this morning to the 105.749 level. This boost came despite a dip in consumer confidence as identified by The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. This index surveys households and asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions in the US. The Consumer Confidence Index dipped in June to 100.4, down from 101.3 in May. US Manufacturing Activity also dipped in June according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index decreased from 0 in May to -10 in June. Lastly, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman noted this morning, that the Fed is willing to raise rates if inflation progress stalls.

In the UK, the GBP appeared poised for a decline as market expectations for UK interest rates may be adjusted downward later this summer. This shift is anticipated in response to a likely rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in August. The pound’s value has been influenced by the BoE’s stance on monetary policy, but recent economic indicators suggest a potential easing ahead.


Expected Ranges

  • EUR/CAD: 1.46598 - 1.45876 ▼
  • GBP/CAD: 1.72716 - 1.73491 ▼
  • AUD/CAD: 0.9066 - 0.90109 ▼
  • USD/CAD: 1.36205 - 1.3680 ▼