Home Daily Commentaries Euro declines on recession worries

Euro declines on recession worries

Monday 11 July, 2022

Daily Currency Update

Sterling fell against the US dollar on Friday as an unfavourable macroeconomic backdrop overshadowed concerns about politics after Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced his resignation. Britain’s government will focus on delivering pre-agreed policy rather than unpicking previously agreed decisions, a spokesperson for Boris Johnson said on Friday.

Key Movers

The euro ended last week as the worst performing currency globally on increasing worries of a deeper and longer recession in the Eurozone. The sell-off of the euro also dragged down the Swiss Franc, which ended the week as the second worst performing currency. The euro’s broad-based decline is marching towards parity against the US dollar. This was triggered by the gas and energy crisis and the prolonged Russian invasion of Ukraine. Europe is now facing the risk of a worse recession than other major economies. The gloomy outlook is potentially tying up the European Central Banks’s hands on monetary policy normalization to combat inflation. The ECB is clear that it will hike interest rates by 25bps this month. But by the end of July, the US Federal Reserve should have delivered another 75bps, which could fuel a further decline in the EUR/USD pair.

Expected Ranges

  • GBP/USD: 1.1945 - 1.2035 ▲
  • GBP/EUR: 1.1805 - 1.1895 ▲
  • EUR/USD: 1.0085 - 1.0185 ▲