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EU CPI data is eagerly anticipated

Friday 1 July, 2022

Daily Currency Update

Economic data releases were quiet in the UK yesterday after the early report showed that the current account deficit grew to £51 billion for the first quarter of 2022. A release at the same time yesterday showed UK GDP is estimated to have increased by an unrevised 0.8% in the first quarter of 2022. The level of real GDP remains 0.7% above where it was pre-COVID times – October to December 2019. Sterling performed negatively against both the USD and EUR yesterday, dropping against both currencies to recent lows. GBP/USD has twice tested falling below 1.2100 in the past 24 hours, touching 1.2090 at the lows.

Key Movers

GBP/EUR has fallen from 1.1680 at the highs to 1.1580 earlier this morning. As the UK has no notable data releases today, European CPI flash estimate y/y will be eagerly anticipated for potential EUR movement today. Christine Lagarde warned in a speech at the central banks forum earlier this week that the European Central Bank will go as far as necessary to bring inflation back down to its 2% target. This has brought into focus the Eurozone’s consumer price data today as market participants look for signs that inflation has peaked. The release of US ISM manufacturing PMI at 3pm will likely also be monitored, especially as we head into the 4th July US bank holiday weekend. Sterling’s volatility against these currencies could very much continue into the weekend.

Expected Ranges

  • GBP/USD: 1.2070 - 1.2150 ▼
  • GBP/EUR: 1.1520 - 1.1660 ▼
  • GBP/AUD: 1.7660 - 1.8120 ▲
  • EUR/USD: 1.0390 - 1.0480 ▼