Home Daily Commentaries Australian dollar recovers despite disappointing employment data

Australian dollar recovers despite disappointing employment data

Daily Currency Update

The Australian dollar (AUD) has shown signs of resilience, turning positive on daily charts as risk appetite among investors appears to have offset the impact of disappointing employment figures released on Thursday. Following a dip to support levels around 0.6615, the AUD/USD pair rebounded, climbing back above the 0.6550 mark. Despite this recovery, the currency remains well below this week’s year-to-date (YTD) high of 0.6707, recorded on Wednesday. Earlier on Thursday, the Australian dollar faced downward pressure after the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a net employment decline of 5,400 jobs in August—contrary to market expectations of a 22,000 gain. This result was particularly surprising given the strong 26,500 increase recorded in July. Nevertheless, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, suggesting some underlying stability in the labor market. The market’s initial reaction to the weaker employment data was tempered by broader risk sentiment, with investors seemingly willing to look past the setback in favour of more optimistic global cues. The rebound in the Aussie highlights the complex interplay between domestic economic indicators and international risk dynamics in shaping currency movements. Looking ahead, traders will be closely monitoring upcoming economic releases and global market developments to gauge whether the Australian dollar can maintain its recent momentum or if it will face renewed downward pressure.

Key Movers

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a quarter percentage point reduction in its benchmark interest rate, marking the first rate cut since December. In addition to this move, the central bank signaled its intention to implement two more rate reductions before the end of the year, underscoring growing concerns about slowing economic growth and emerging risks to the labor market. The decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points was widely anticipated by markets, reflecting a shift in the Fed’s stance from tightening to a more accommodative monetary policy amid mounting uncertainties. Despite this, US President Donald Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the pace of cuts, publicly calling for a “bigger” reduction in interest rates to bolster economic growth and counteract global trade tensions. Fed Chair Jerome Powell explained the rationale behind the decision during the press conference, highlighting “growing signs of weakness” in the labor market and broader economic indicators that warranted a preemptive easing. After keeping rates steady since December in response to concerns over tariff-driven inflation and a historically strong labor market, the Fed is now pivoting to safeguard the expansion amid rising uncertainties, including ongoing trade disputes and slowing global demand. The Fed’s shift signals a cautious approach to supporting the economy, aiming to strike a balance between sustaining growth and managing inflation risks. Market participants will closely monitor upcoming data releases and the Fed’s communications for further guidance on the pace and extent of future monetary easing.

Expected Ranges

  • AUD/USD: 0.6500 - 0.6700 ▼
  • AUD/EUR: 0.5500 - 0.5700 ▼
  • GBP/AUD: 2.0450 - 2.0650 ▲
  • AUD/NZD: 1.1100 - 1.1200 ▲
  • AUD/CAD: 0.9000 - 0.9200 ▼

Written by

Brett Ottawa

OFXpert

Brett brings a wealth of experience, boasting more than 15 years in the foreign exchange market. He started his foreign exchange career with OFX more than a decade ago, as a private dealer catering to individual clients. He later transitioned to the corporate sector, assuming the position of Corporate Senior Relationship Manager. What truly excites Brett is the opportunity to engage with people, supporting their business growth and sharing in their successes.