Home Daily Commentaries NZD/USD trades in a narrow range ahead of key US and New Zealand economic data

NZD/USD trades in a narrow range ahead of key US and New Zealand economic data

Daily Currency Update

The NZD/USD currency pair is trading within a tight range around the 0.5970 level during the late Asian session on Tuesday, as investors position themselves ahead of a potentially volatile week. Market participants are bracing for significant movements in the Kiwi dollar, with two major events on the horizon: the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, followed by New Zealand’s Q2 gross domestic product (GDP) report scheduled for Thursday. The upcoming Fed meeting is widely anticipated to influence global currency markets, including the NZD/USD pair. Traders are closely watching for any signals regarding the future path of US interest rates, which could impact risk appetite and the relative strength of the US dollar. On the domestic front, New Zealand’s Q2 GDP data is expected to show a contraction, with economists forecasting a 0.3% decline in economic growth compared to a 0.8% expansion in the previous quarter. This anticipated slowdown reflects ongoing challenges in the New Zealand economy, including subdued consumer spending and global trade uncertainties. A contraction in GDP growth could intensify market speculation that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) might pursue additional interest rate cuts later in the year to support economic recovery. Such expectations tend to weigh on the Kiwi dollar, adding to the pair’s sensitivity ahead of the data release. In summary, the NZD/USD pair is likely to experience heightened volatility in the coming days as investors digest critical policy decisions and economic indicators from both the US and New Zealand. Traders are advised to monitor developments closely, as the interplay between these factors will shape the near-term trajectory of the Kiwi dollar.

Key Movers

The US dollar continued to drop on Tuesday, falling about 1.2% from last week’s highs. Investors are getting ready for the Federal Reserve to likely cut interest rates during its announcement on Wednesday. The US Dollar Index fell below important support levels around 97.10 and is now testing levels below 97.00. In the meantime, US retail sales for August came in stronger than expected. According to the US Census Bureau, retail sales rose by 0.6% in August, reaching $732 billion. This was better than the 0.2% increase that many had expected. July’s retail sales were also revised up to a 0.6% increase from the previous 0.5%. Compared to last year, retail sales are up 5%. The report also noted that sales from June through August 2025 were 4.5% higher than the same period last year. Even though retail sales are solid, investors still expect the Fed to ease monetary policy to support the economy. This expectation has pushed the US dollar lower ahead of the Fed’s decision. In summary, the US dollar’s recent fall shows that many believe the Fed will take a softer approach to interest rates soon. Traders will be watching Wednesday’s announcement closely for clues about the future.

Expected Ranges

  • NZD/USD: 0.5900 - 0.6100 ▲
  • NZD/EUR: 0.4950 - 0.5150 ▲
  • GBP/NZD: 2.2700 - 2.2900 ▼
  • NZD/AUD: 1.1050 - 1.1250 ▼
  • NZD/CAD: 0.8100 - 0.8300 ▲

Written by

Brett Ottawa

OFXpert

Brett brings a wealth of experience, boasting more than 15 years in the foreign exchange market. He started his foreign exchange career with OFX more than a decade ago, as a private dealer catering to individual clients. He later transitioned to the corporate sector, assuming the position of Corporate Senior Relationship Manager. What truly excites Brett is the opportunity to engage with people, supporting their business growth and sharing in their successes.