All Eyes on Upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium
Daily Currency Update
Sterling is steady around $1.3547 as markets wait for UK CPI data and developments in Ukraine to provide direction. The pound has gained about 2% in August, supported by stronger-than-expected economic performance and a cautiously hawkish Bank of England rate cut. Goldman Sachs expects core inflation to dip slightly to 3.62%, adding intrigue ahead of the release, while PMI data later this week will help confirm the economic trajectory.The euro remains broadly stable, trading quietly with little headline news, reflecting sideways momentum rather than underlying strength. Market sentiment across Europe and beyond is being driven largely by U.S.–Ukraine talks and anticipation of the Jackson Hole symposium.
In the U.S., the dollar index edged up to 98.12 as investors leaned on its safe-haven appeal amid geopolitical tensions. All eyes are now on Jackson Hole, where investors await Fed Chair Powell’s remarks on the path of interest rates — whether delivered as a whisper or a bellow.
Global equities remain elevated, but cryptocurrencies continue their slide for a third straight day, with Bitcoin and Ether both under pressure. For the dollar, Powell’s words could determine whether its strength holds or begins to crack under the weight of uncertainty.
Key Movers
In the UK, attention turns to CPI on Wednesday, with core inflation expected to ease to 3.62%. Midweek PMI surveys for services and manufacturing will help set the tone for sterling, indicating whether momentum is holding or stalling.From the Eurozone, CPI and flash PMI data will test how firmly inflation is anchored and whether activity is stabilising — both key inputs for the ECB’s policy path and the euro’s direction.
In the U.S., the release of FOMC minutes on Wednesday will provide insight into the Fed’s debate on inflation, labour dynamics, and the timing of rate cuts. Retail earnings from Walmart, Target, and Home Depot (Wednesday–Thursday) will also offer a read on consumer strength, shaping expectations for inflation and the dollar. Housing data, building permits, and weekly jobless claims will add colour on whether the economy is cooling gradually or slipping faster than expected. Additional commentary from Fed officials including Bowman, Waller, and Bostic will round out the narrative on how close the central bank is to cutting rates.
Expected Ranges
- GBP/USD: 1.3416 - 1.3525 ▼
- GBP/EUR: 1.1503 - 1.1620 ▼
- GBP/AUD: 2.0776 - 2.0899 ▲
- EUR/USD: 1.1599 - 1.1711 ▲