NZD finds new 2025 high as USD faces continued pressures
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Daily Currency Update
The NZD rose through trade on Tuesday, breaking above US$0.61 and marking a new 2025 high. With the USD DXY index trading below 96.50 (a multi-year low) amid rising concern for the future of US debt and the budget deficit the NZD rallied to tough intraday highs just south of US$0.6120. Having marked a US$0.6119 the NZD lost momentum as the USD followed a rebound in front end treasury yields following a stronger than expected US JOLTS jobs report. After sliding back to US$0.6080 the NZD opens this morning just above US$0.61, a consolidated close above this level could signal a shift into a higher technical trading range.With no data on the domestic macroeconomic docket our attentions remain with trade headlines and shift to Australia retails sales, European unemployment data and the USD ADP payroll print.
Key Movers
Moves among major currencies were small Tuesday as conflicting forces worked against each other and ensured ranges remained in check. The USD dropped to a new multi year low after President Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill passed the Senate and fears surrounding US debt and the budget deficit escalated. As we noted yesterday the Congressional Budget Office estimates the Bill will add north $3 trillion to the deficit over the next 10 years. A rebound across front end US treasury yields helped lift the dollar off the daily low. It recovered much of its losses and sits little changed on the day. In other news the euro is flat after euro-area inflation printed flat while the GBP held a narrow range through the day and the yen showed little net movement.Our attentions remain with trade and trade headlines while ADP payroll numbers dominate the macro ticket ahead of Friday’s non-farm payroll print.
Expected Ranges
- NZD/USD: 0.6050 - 0.6150 ▲
- NZD/EUR: 0.5100 - 0.5200 ▼
- GBP/NZD: 2.2400 - 2.2700 ▲
- NZD/AUD: 0.9220 - 0.9320 ▲
- NZD/CAD: 0.8250 - 0.8380 ▲