Home Daily Commentaries AUD falters amid volatile trading session

AUD falters amid volatile trading session

Matt Richardson
Written by
Matt Richardson

Matt Richardson

OFXpert

Matt provides expertise in currency risk management to his clients, drawing from his 14 years of experience in foreign exchange.

| Thursday 15 May, 2025

Daily Currency Update

The Australian dollar retreated through trade on Wednesday, unable to extend through US$0.65. Having touched intraday highs at US$0.6497 the AUD fell steadily amid a volatile Asian trading sessions sliding back below US$0.6450 to open this morning just below US$0.6425. Conflicting headlines surrounding trade talks and currency pledges prompted volatility across Asian currencies, with the KRW and JPY falling sharply. The sell-off across Asian currencies spilled into the AUD, with investors reluctant to extend gains above US$0.65. With US yields rising and the USD advancing against a basket of currencies, the AUD is lower across the board, sliding against the euro and GBP as well.

Our attentions turn now to domestic employment data. We anticipate the unemployment rate to remain steady at 4.1% with minimal employment growth. We expect the outcome will have little impact on market expectations for an RBA rate cut next week, and AUD direction will continue to be driven by global trade and geopolitical forces.

Key Movers

Conflicting headlines prompted volatility across currency markets through trade on Wednesday, with the USD DXY index edging higher and Asian currency moving sharply lower. Mixed messaging as to whether currency pledges would be included in any prospective trade agreements drove volatility across the KRW and JPY as officials reportedly discussed currency policy. The KRW and JPY fell amid speculation trade deals would be delayed pending commitments to minimise currency depreciation. The downturn spilled into other local units before markets paired gains after the US confirmed it will not include currency policy pledges in trade agreements.
The volatility prompted a push to safety with the USD DXY index up 0.1% driven mainly by JPY losses. The EUR and GBP traded flat on the day.

Our attentions turn now to a stacked US ticket, while UK and EU GDP data and commentary from Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, round out the daily macroeconomic agenda.

Expected Ranges

  • AUD/USD: 0.6380 - 0.6500 ▼
  • AUD/EUR: 0.5700 - 0.5800 ▼
  • GBP/AUD: 2.0500 - 2.0800 ▲
  • AUD/NZD: 1.0850 - 1.0950 ▼
  • AUD/CAD: 0.8950 - 0.9050 ▼

Written by

Matt Richardson

OFXpert

As a Senior Corporate Client Manager, Matt provides expertise in currency risk management to his clients, drawing from his 14 years of experience in foreign exchange. Matt has clients who he has been working with for over a decade, a testament to his knowledge and dedication in the field. Matt is also a regular contributor on Ausbiz, offering clear and precise updates on currency market trends, showcasing his ability to interpret complex financial data into actionable insights.

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