Aussie dollar is weaker despite strong trade balance data
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Daily Currency Update
The Australian dollar is slightly weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback, currently trading at 0.6379 at time of writing. On the data front yesterday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a trade surplus of AUD 6.9 billion for March, significantly surpassing expectations of AUD 3.13 billion and the revised February figure of AUD 2.85 billion (down from AUD 2.97 billion). The strong surplus was driven by a 7.6% rise in exports and a 2.2% decline in imports for the month. On Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.9% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2025, up from a 0.2% increase in Q4 2024 and exceeding market expectations of a 0.8% rise. On an annual basis, CPI climbed 2.4% in the first quarter, beating the forecast of 2.2%. The AUD/JPY cross gains traction to near 91.90 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The Japanese yen (JPY) trades slightly weaker against the Aussie, after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to keep its policy rate unchanged. The BoJ board members decided to leave the short-term interest rate target unchanged in the range of 0.40%-0.50% on Thursday, as widely expected. The Japanese central bank noted in the statement that the economy is likely to slow as trade policy impact slows global growth.Key Movers
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US dollar (USD) against a basket of currencies, is rising above the 100.00 level as markets absorb softer-than-expected labor and manufacturing data. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell to 48.7 in April from 49.0, indicating continued contraction. The figure still came in slightly better than the market expectation of 48.0. Initial unemployment claims posted an unexpected increase last week in a potentially troubling sign for the wobbling U.S. economy. First-time filings for unemployment insurance totalled a seasonally adjusted 241,000 for the week ended April 26, up 18,000 from the prior period and higher than the Dow Jones estimate for 225,000, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. This was the highest total since Feb. 22. Continuing claims, which run a week behind and provide a broader view of layoff trends, rose to 1.92 million, up 83,000 to the highest level since Nov. 13, 2021. The Labor Department on Friday will release its non-farm payrolls total for April, with economists expecting an increase of 133,000. The Thursday release will not factor into that number, as it is beyond the survey week used for the report.Expected Ranges
- AUD/USD: 0.6300 - 0.6500 ▼
- AUD/EUR: 0.5550 - 0.5750 ▼
- GBP/AUD: 2.0700 - 2.0900 ▲
- AUD/NZD: 1.0700 - 1.0900 ▲
- AUD/CAD: 0.8700 - 0.8900 ▼