Daily Currency Update
The New Zealand dollar is steady this morning when valued against the Greenback, currently trading at 0.5971 at time of writing. The NZD/USD pair refreshes a more than 11-week low slightly below 0.5950 in North American trading hours on Thursday. The Kiwi dollar bounced back after the release of the United States Initial Jobless Claims data for the week ending October 25. Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) remains under pressure on expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will cut interest rates again by a larger-than-usual size of 50 basis points (bps) in its monetary policy meeting on November 27. This would push the Official Cash Rate (OCR) lower to 4.25%. Looking ahead today on the data front and Statistics New Zealand will release the latest monthly building consents.
Key Movers
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rebounds from the day’s low of 103.80 and turns flat, at the time of writing. The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell to a five-month low last week and consumer spending increased more than expected in September, showcasing the economy's strength heading into the final stretch of 2024 and just days before next Tuesday's presidential election. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 216,000 for the week ended Oct. 26, the lowest level since May, the Labor Department said. The third straight weekly decline likely reflected the fading distortions from Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which boosted claims in early October and kept them elevated through the middle of the month. The report also highlighted a seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate of 1.2%, while the four-week moving average retreated to 236.50k, marking a decrease of 2.250k from the prior week’s revised average. The US PCE Price Index rose moderately by 2.1% YoY in September, lower than the previous 2.2%, but below the consensus of 2.2%. Core PCE, more relevant for the Fed, remained steady at 2.7%, against market expectations of a decline to 2.6%.
Expected Ranges
- NZD/USD: 0.5900 - 0.6100 ▲
- NZD/EUR: 0.5400 - 0.5600 ▲
- GBP/NZD: 2.1400 - 2.1600 ▼
- NZD/AUD: 1.0900 - 1.1100 ▲
- NZD/CAD: 0.8200 - 0.8400 ▲