US data to hold the headlines today
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Daily Currency Update
There were no significant macroeconomic data announcements yesterday. Late in the morning, we saw the low-impact CBI Realised Sales data—a survey of retailers and wholesalers indicating consumer spending. A negative figure was expected, suggesting lower sales volumes, but the release slightly exceeded expectations, landing at -6 compared to the forecast of -9.GBP/USD has traded at the higher end of 1.2900 over the past 24 hours but has yet to break back through 1.3000, opening today at 1.2985. Meanwhile, GBP/EUR remains range-bound, fluctuating narrowly around 1.2000, and EUR/USD is currently at 1.0825.
Key Movers
There’s a bit more data for currency markets to digest today. Early this morning, the UK releases low-impact data, including mortgage approvals, money supply, and net lending. The focus shifts to the U.S. in the afternoon with consumer confidence and JOLTS job openings reports. Consumer confidence is expected to rise, while job openings are anticipated to decline.Market participants will be watching JOLTS closely ahead of Friday’s October payrolls report. Given strong September payrolls, the hiring rate could increase from August's historically low 3.3%. The previous JOLTS report showed the quits rate—a key wage growth indicator—falling to 2.1%, its weakest level since 2015, excluding early COVID months. This data release could introduce some additional USD volatility.
Expected Ranges
- GBP/USD: 1.9210 - 1.3050 ▲
- GBP/EUR: 1.1970 - 1.2020 ▲
- GBP/AUD: 1.9610 - 1.9880 ▲
- EUR/USD: 1.0720 - 1.0890 ▲