Home Daily Commentaries US dollar starts week in positive footing

US dollar starts week in positive footing

Daily Currency Update

The US dollar index (DXY) has regained its composure, hitting the 103 level this morning and is up against most major currencies. The DXY is currently sitting at 103.3 after several data releases this morning including the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI). The Manufacturing PMI summarizes economic activity in the manufacturing sector and came in just below the expected 47 at 46.9, the lowest level since 2020. This figure could indicate a slowing down of the US economy and recessionary pressures returning. The US construction spending month-over-month data was also released showing the total amount of spending on all types of construction was at 0.9% versus the expected 0.5% increase.

Key Movers

The eurozone’s manufacturing PMI data currently stands at 43.4 from 44.8 in May. Germany’s PMI has hit a 3-year low at 40.6. With continued social unrest occurring in France, President Emmanuel Macron has cancelled his scheduled trip to Germany. Looking ahead, markets will be eyeing the May trade surplus which will be released tomorrow.

In news out to the UK, the final June manufacturing PMI stands at 46.5. This figure is slightly better than the anticipated 46.2 however it is still the fourth consecutive decline in PMI data and has not hit 50 since last July. The Bank of England (BoE) will not meet until August 3rd when markets are pricing in an 85% chance of a 50 basis point (bps) hike.

While the Canadian market is closed today, markets are looking ahead to Canada’s manufacturing PMI being released tomorrow as well as May’s trade figures on Thursday and employment data on Friday. Unemployment rates are expected to rise to 5.3% from the current 5.2%.

Expected Ranges

  • EUR/USD: 1.0873 - 1.0917 ▲
  • GBP/USD: 1.2664 - 1.2705 ▲
  • AUD/USD: 0.6641 - 0.6673 ▲
  • USD/CAD: 1.324 - 0.3272 ▲