Home Daily Commentaries NZD flat as markets begin to turn attention to fed policy update

NZD flat as markets begin to turn attention to fed policy update

Daily Currency Update

The NZD traded flat through trade on Tuesday, unable to hold gains near US$0.61 yet finding support on moves below US$0.6050 in what was a largely quiet and uneventful day. Reports China asked big banks to cut deposit rates last week and rumours the People's Bank of China is preparing to lower the reserve requirement ratio forced the Chinese yuan toward year-to-date lows as investors prepare for a fresh round of liquidity to hit the market. The weaker yuan spilled over into NZD price action capping gains and forcing investors to track positions leading into the Federal Reserve policy meeting. While flat against most counterparts the NZD moved sharply lower against the AUD after the RBA policy adjustment. The NZD fell through A$0.9150, marking intraday lows at A$0.91. With marco forced weighing on the NZD and interest rates converging the NZD/AUD outlook should retain a negative bias through the end of the year. We anticipate a break below A$0.90 and toward $A0.88 over the coming months.
Our attentions turn now to next week's Federal Reserve and the Federal Open Market Committee's latest policy update. Expectations are for policy makers to announce a pause in the tightening cycle, affording more time to assess the impact of recent rate hikes with the hope of cushioning any economic downturn. With a 75% probability of a pause priced in another Fed rate hike will catch investors and likely force the NZD back toward supports at US$0.5980/US$0.60. However, should the Fed opt to skip forward into July before issuing another rate hike we could see the NZD jump through US$0.61 and toward resistance at US$0.62. In the interim commentary from RBA Governor Lowe Chinese Trade Data and a Bank of Canada policy update will provide direction.

Key Movers

Outside the AUD outperformance, it has been a relatively quiet 24 hours across major currency markets with only small movements as markets position themselves ahead of this week's Fed and Federal Open Market Committee policy update. The US ten-year rate traded between 3.65% and 3.73% while 2-year yields sat slightly higher up 6 basis points to 4.52%.
The euro edged back below $1.07 as the European Central Bank monthly survey showed a marked fall in inflation expectations, helping contain European rate forecasts with 10 and 2-year rates moving marginally lower. The divergence in US and European rates acted as a drag on the single currency, forcing it toward intraday lows at $1.0670.
Our attentions remain on next week's Fed policy announcement while Chinese trade data and the Bank of Canada policy update will prove key in guiding near-term direction. While most expect them to leave rates on hold, stubborn inflation metrics have elevated calls for another 25-point hike after a series of on-hold decisions.

Expected Ranges

  • NZD/USD: 0.5980 - 0.6120 ▼
  • NZD/EUR: 0.5620 - 0.5720 ▲
  • GBP/NZD: 2.0280 - 2.0620 ▼
  • NZD/AUD: 0.9050 - 0.9150 ▼
  • NZD/CAD: 0.8080 - 0.8180 ▼