Home Daily Commentaries AUD upswing hampered by ongoing tariff uncertainty

AUD upswing hampered by ongoing tariff uncertainty

Matt Richardson
Written by
Matt Richardson

Matt Richardson

OFXpert

Matt provides expertise in currency risk management to his clients, drawing from his 14 years of experience in foreign exchange.

| Tuesday 15 July, 2025

Daily Currency Update

Tariffs were again front and centre, driving direction through trade on Monday and forcing the AUD back below US$0.6550. Markets reacted to letters issued over the weekend by President Trump threatening a 30% tariff on Mexico and the EU, driving risk assets lower. The President added further uncertainty stating he is always open to talking to trading partners, while in the same breath, announcing the “letters are the deals, the deals are made, there are no deals to make”.

President Trump’s agenda and haphazard approach continues to disrupt market sentiment and weigh on the AUD. While last weeks' RBA decision to leave rates on hold has helped reshape domestic rate cut expectations, and add a floor beneath the currency, gains are likely to be capped at or near the current resistance level. Having tested an 8-week high just short of US$0.66 last week, the AUD opens this morning buying US$0.6545.

Our attention today turns to Q2 China GDP data, US and Canadian CPI inflation numbers and ongoing tariff headlines.

Key Movers

Ongoing uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s tariff agenda drove direction Monday, propping up the USD. The euro fell as markets responded to confirmation a letter had been released at the weekend informing EU officials a 30% tariff would be applied come August 1. While the single currency dipped on open, it offered staunch resistance to any extended downside move. Markets maintain an optimistic assumption Trump’s tariff agenda will be dialled back and a softer final tariff rate agreed. That said, the chaotic approach of this US administration continues to weigh on risk assets and sentiment.

In other news, the yen opened on the back foot amid rising concern for Japan’s fiscal outlook. Spreads of Japanese Government Bond yields rose but added little support to the yen as the USD pushed above 147.50.

Our attention today turns to China GDP data and US CPI inflation numbers. Our focus will be on the goods component for any sign tariffs are adding to price pressures. Another downside miss will only support President Trump’s claim tariffs are not inflationary when in reality the impact is likely still ahead.

Expected Ranges

  • AUD/USD: 0.6500 - 0.6600 ▼
  • AUD/EUR: 0.5550 - 0.5630 ▼
  • GBP/AUD: 2.0450 - 2.0700 ▲
  • AUD/NZD: 1.0880 - 1.0980 ▲
  • AUD/CAD: 0.8920 - 0.9020 ▼

Written by

Matt Richardson

OFXpert

As a Senior Corporate Client Manager, Matt provides expertise in currency risk management to his clients, drawing from his 14 years of experience in foreign exchange. Matt has clients who he has been working with for over a decade, a testament to his knowledge and dedication in the field. Matt is also a regular contributor on Ausbiz, offering clear and precise updates on currency market trends, showcasing his ability to interpret complex financial data into actionable insights.