Daily Currency Update
The New Zealand dollar is slightly weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback, currently trading at US$0.5957 at time of writing. New Zealand's central bank said on Wednesday that risks to the financial system have increased over the past six months due to a more volatile global economic environment, but the country's banks remain in a strong position. Geopolitical risks have escalated following US tariffs on goods imports from many countries, including New Zealand, said Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Christian Hawkesby in a statement accompanying the Financial Stability Report. While New Zealand moved out of recession in the fourth quarter of last year, the economy remains soft and sentiment weak. Data published earlier on Wednesday showed persistent weakness in the jobs market in the first quarter, with the unemployment rate at 5.1%. The RBNZ has cut the cash rate by 200 basis points since August last year to 3.5% as it tried to prop up the economy, and is expected to cut further this year. National house prices are still sitting around 13% below their peak in November 2021, and have shown little movement over the past 12 months, according to the report. The market remains soft overall, with a high volume of unsold stock and weak net migration limiting upward momentum. The central bank expects 60% of home loans to reprice to lower rates within six months, and 80% within a year, easing debt serviceability pressures that spiked when rates hit their peak.
Key Movers
The US dollar Index (DXY) initially fell to 99.50 after the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at 4.5%, citing persistent inflation and rising risks to both sides of its dual mandate. US stocks ended a choppy day higher after the Federal Reserve left its main interest rate alone, as was widely expected, but also warned about rising risks for the US economy. The S&P 500 rose 0.4%. The index is coming off a two-day losing streak that had snapped its nine-day winning run. The Dow Jones rose 0.7%, and the Nasdaq composite added 0.3%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank has time to wait before making any potential moves on rates, but he warned that sustained tariffs could both weaken the economy and trigger higher inflation. In the bond market, Treasury yields fell following the Fed’s announcement. The yield on the 10-year Treasury eased to 4.27% from 4.30% late Tuesday. Gold prices slightly jumped past $3,390 but failed to get to $3,400. Conversely, a dovish stance could pave the way for gold buyers to test $3,450 and possibly the record high of $3,500.
Expected Ranges
- NZD/USD: 0.5800 - 0.6000 ▼
- NZD/EUR: 0.5150 - 0.5350 ▼
- GBP/NZD: 2.2200 - 2.2400 ▲
- NZD/AUD: 1.0700 - 1.0900 ▼
- NZD/CAD: 0.8100 - 0.8300 ▲