US jobs data in focus for today
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Daily Currency Update
US manufacturing continued to struggle with tariff uncertainty, as highlighted by data released yesterday. The index rose from 46.5 in October to 48.4 in November, surpassing the forecast of 47.5. Notably, new orders climbed above the 50.0 threshold—the benchmark separating contraction from expansion—for the first time since March. However, production remained weak, registering at 46.8. Until greater clarity emerges regarding the trading environment, US manufacturing activity is likely to remain subdued.GBP/USD hit a session low of 1.2620 on Monday but has since moved closer to 1.2700 in recent hours. Meanwhile, GBP/EUR touched 1.2090 yesterday as markets reacted to French political unrest earlier in the day. However, this level has not held, and the pair is now trading just above 1.2050. EUR/USD continues to fluctuate, oscillating around the key 1.0500 level.
Key Movers
French political turmoil has weighed on the EUR since the end of last week. French Prime Minister Michel Barnier faces a vote of no confidence on Wednesday, following fierce opposition from across the political spectrum to his budget. The budget includes painful tax increases and spending cuts aimed at repairing the country's precarious finances. This is one of several headwinds currently affecting the EUR, with Germany grappling with a weak economic outlook and impending tariffs from the US once Trump is inaugurated in January. These challenges have led many to predict parity between EUR/USD, which would also likely result in the GBP gaining against the single currency.US jobs data is set to be released later today, serving as a preliminary indicator ahead of Friday’s comprehensive jobs report. The outcome will help determine whether the 70% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December is justified.
Expected Ranges
- GBP/USD: 1.2610 - 1.2720 ▼
- GBP/EUR: 1.2040 - 1.2090 ▲
- GBP/AUD: 1.9470 - 1.9620 ▼
- EUR/USD: 1.0460 - 1.0580 ▼