Home Daily Commentaries Australian Dollar poised to mark new 2024 low

Australian Dollar poised to mark new 2024 low

Matt Richardson
Written by
Matt Richardson

Matt Richardson

OFXpert

Matt provides expertise in currency risk management to his clients, drawing from his 14 years of experience in foreign exchange.

| Thursday 14 November, 2024

Daily Currency Update

Unfortunately, there was little reprieve for the AUD through trade on Wednesday as the US dollar continued its post-election upswing despite a correction in yields, an improved CNY, and elevated expectations for a Fed rate cut. The AUD did find some support through the local session after the People's Bank of China expressed concerns regarding the pace and scale of the recent yuan correction and set a stronger fix rate to try to temper further losses. The AUD traded sideways and even edged toward US$0.6550 before gapping lower overnight. The AUD gave up almost three quarters of a percent, and was among the day's worst performers, marking new intraday lows at US$0.6480, its lowest level in more than 3 months. With momentum firmly behind the USD, the AUD appears poised to break below the April low at US$.6420.

Our attentions turn now to commentary from RBA Governor bullock and US PPI data.

Key Movers

The US dollar upswing continued on Wednesday, despite a correction in front end yields and elevated calls for another Fed rate hike in December. US CPI data for October printed in line with market estimates, ensuring the annual rate of inflation fell from 2.6% to 2.4%. The continued retracement in inflation pressures allowed analyst to firm bets for another rate cut in 2024 and markets are pricing in 21 points of easing into the end of the year, up from 15 prior to the print. Despite rising expectations for another cut, the US dollar maintained its post-election momentum. The USD DXY index reached highs not seen since April and appears poised to mark a new 2024 peak. The yen allowed the USD to trade back through 155 while the euro marked a new 2024 low, sliding toward 1.0550 and the pound tested a break below 1.27.

Our attentions today turn to the latest US PPI report, while CPI input data will help shape expectations for the PCE index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.

Expected Ranges

  • AUD/USD: 0.6450 - 0.6600 ▼
  • AUD/EUR: 0.6100 - 0.6200 ▼
  • GBP/AUD: 1.9400 - 1.9700 ▲
  • AUD/NZD: 1.0980 - 1.1080 ▲
  • AUD/CAD: 0.9020 - 0.9120 ▼

Written by

Matt Richardson

OFXpert

As a Senior Corporate Client Manager, Matt provides expertise in currency risk management to his clients, drawing from his 14 years of experience in foreign exchange. Matt has clients who he has been working with for over a decade, a testament to his knowledge and dedication in the field. Matt is also a regular contributor on Ausbiz, offering clear and precise updates on currency market trends, showcasing his ability to interpret complex financial data into actionable insights.