Home Daily Commentaries NZD crumbles as Chinese economic outlook sours

NZD crumbles as Chinese economic outlook sours

Tuesday 16 August, 2022

Daily Currency Update

The New Zealand dollar retraced recent gains through trade on Monday following a surprise Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) monetary policy adjustment and softer than anticipated activity data. Having traded above US$0.64 leading into last week's close the NZD came under heavy selling pressure after the PBOC announced a 10 basis point reduction in its medium-term lending facility and key activity indicators printed short of expectations. Chinese industrial production, consumer retail sales and key investment indicators were much weaker than anticipated in July, disappointing investors expecting a post lockdown upturn. Softness in the Chinese property market and an emerging liquidity trap continue to drag on the economy and highlight a souring in the Chinese economic outlook. The US dollar advanced more than 1% against the yuan while the NZD, often seen as a proxy for yuan performance tumbled toward intraday lows near US$0.6350, a 1.4% depreciation on the day. The sour Chinese macro outlook served to remind markets of the challenges facing the broader global economy. A sustained flow of negative macro news will likely weigh on the NZD through the months ahead, generating headwinds that counter any USD weakness. With little of note on today’s domestic ticket, we now turn our attention to tomorrow’s RBNZ policy update and statement.

Key Movers

The US dollar outperformed through trade on Monday recovering last week’s post CPI sell off amid a broad souring in risk demand. A surprise loosening of monetary policy by the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) and a string of softer than anticipated macro data sets served to remind markets of the headwinds plaguing the global economy, driving demand for the safe haven dollar and Japanese yen. A backdrop of lower global rates coupled with a sustained rise in European energy prices. Gas futures rose a further 7% through trade on Monday adding more pain to an already embattled Euro economy. Having given up US$1.02 the single unit gave up 1% dipping toward intraday lows near US$1.0150. The British pound fared a little better giving up just over half a percent, trading toward lows near US$1.2050. We now turn our attention to a Canadian CPI inflation update ahead of tomorrow’s all-important US retail sales print. With recession fears rising in the US, consumer sentiment will prove a critical marker in governing any potential FOMC policy shift.

Expected Ranges

  • NZD/USD: 0.6280 - 0.6420 ▼
  • NZD/EUR: 0.6180 - 0.6320 ▼
  • GBP/NZD: 1.8800 - 1.9120 ▲
  • NZD/AUD: 0.9020 - 0.9080 ▲
  • NZD/CAD: 0.8180 - 0.8250 ▲