Home Daily Commentaries UK inflation hits 40-year high

UK inflation hits 40-year high

Thursday 23 June, 2022

Daily Currency Update

Sterling dropped immediately after the release of UK inflation data which printed a figure largely as expected of 9.1%, however some crucial elements of the report were softer, which could end up supporting the currency. Sterling’s reaction to the data was extremely mixed. When the data was initially printed, GBPUSD dropped well below the $1.22 handle and was down 0.9% on the day, however by 3pm UK time GBPUSD was back above $1.23. GBPUSD is now back trading into the mid $1.22s. It was a similar story for GBPEUR dropping to around €1.16 on the release, however it recovered to the mid €1.16s and then dropped back below the €1.16 handle once again. The market will now look to manufacturing and services PMI data releases this morning.

Key Movers

The US dollar was under pressure yesterday as markets were feeling slightly concerned that the US Federal Reserve’s commitment to halting ever-increasing inflation could end up causing a recession the US. Overnight, Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve’s Chair, said to congress that the central bank is fully committed to bringing prices under control even if doing so risks an economic downturn. This caused EURUSD to trade back above the $1.05 handle. This morning we had a raft of services and manufacturing PMIs released from Europe. The data showed a sharp drop off in the Eurozone economy across June which has caused a further decline in EUR/USD this morning. It sits just below the $1.05 handle again.

Expected Ranges

  • GBP/USD: 1.2170 - 1.2280 ▼
  • GBP/EUR: 1.1570 - 1.1665 ▲
  • GBP/AUD: 1.7650 - 1.7810 ▲
  • EUR/USD: 1.0470 - 1.0580 ▼