AUD range bound amid quiet start to the week
Tuesday 25 August, 2020
Daily Currency UpdateThe AUD offered little to excite investors through trade on Monday, maintaining a narrow range and bouncing between 0.7150 and 0.7205. With little headline data available to drive direction investors focus remained with broader risk flows choosing to chase positive sentiment and ignore negative developments. Victoria continues to see daily case numbers trend in the right direction while the rest of the country appears to be in control of outbreaks, containing wider community transmission for now. With lockdown restrictions seemingly stemming the spread of infection through Victoria there is hope community transmission will be back to zero before the end of the year, leaving the door open for a renewed economic rebound.
Positive sentiment continues to control direction, allowing the AUD to hold onto gains above 0.70 US cents. Having touched highs above 0.7250 the dollar appears range bound between 0.7130 and 0.7250 seeking that next catalyst to drive it higher. While the July rally has stalled there is ample scope for the AUD to trend higher into the end of the year with downward pressure on the USD still in play. We expect the worlds base currency will come under renewed selling pressure in the months ahead opening the door for a run toward 0.73 and 0.74. Of course, there are risks to this outlook as case numbers in Europe continue to rise. Alarmingly new infections in Germany, France and Italy have spiked in recent weeks. Should conditions worsen and targeted restrictions fail to contain the spread we may see a second lockdown period stymie the economic recovery.
Key MoversMoves across currency markets were largely muted through trade on Monday with most majors maintaining a narrow range against the world’s base currency. The Euro tested 1.1850 before retreating toward 1.18/1.1790 and remains largely unchanged on open this morning, while the Yen bounced between 105.70 and 106. The Great British Pound moved back below 1.31 and fell against the Euro as concerns mount over a lack of progress in Brexit negotiations. Both sides admitted little progress was made in the last round of negotiations with both sides apportioning blame on the other. With the deadline date looming ever closer fear the stalemate will not be broken in beginning to mount, capping Sterling upside. While markets are refraining from making bets on direction the longer negotiations continue without a deal being struck the more volatility we are likely to see.
Attentions this week turn to the Bank of England and any sign it will cut interest rates below zero. We expect they will keep rates on hold at 0.1% for now, leaving the door open for further monetary policy adjustments in the future.
- AUD/USD: 0.7130 - 0.7250 ▲
- AUD/EUR: 0.6010 - 0.6130 ▲
- GBP/AUD: 1.7980 - 1.8420 ▼
- AUD/NZD: 1.0880 - 1.1050 ▲
- AUD/CAD: 0.9380 - 0.9520 ▲