Daily Currency Update

Get access to our expert daily market analyses and discover how your currency has been tracking with our exchange rate tools.

Where’s the dollar go from here?

USD - United States Dollar

After the Federal Reserve announced higher inflation expectations and no change to its interest rates, the US Dollar Index reached a weekly high last Friday. In addition, 10-year US Treasury yields jumped to 1.75% after the Fed announced that it would not extend capital relief rules. The decision requires banks to include treasury and deposits on their leverage ratio. The rule goes into effect at the end of March.

So, what’s that mean for the dollar? Since the Fed did not raise its interest rate, then bond yields have become the signifier of future potential growth. As yields increase, investors seek US dollars to buy them and the demand for the US dollar goes up. Of course, what goes up, must come down. EURUSD hit a one-week low on Friday. This morning, its climbing in favor of the euro. And the US Dollar Index was down 0.05% to 91.87.

Key Movers

Both the euro and Great British pound were unchanged for the weekend despite both initially rallying on Wednesday due to the Federal Reserve’s commitment to a dovish monetary policy. The GBP fell 0.47% on Friday following the news that Bank of England persevered its dovish tone and did not expect interest rates to be increased till inflation started rising. This Friday kicks off the latest European Summit with markets hoping for an update on the €672.50bn Recovery and Resilience Facility to support the EU region during the pandemic crisis.

The Australian Dollar finished off the week slightly lower from Monday’s open despite a strong push midweek towards 79 US cents. The latest Retail Sales print on Friday was a disappointing result, extending losses for the local currency to intraday lows of 0.7724. Retail turnover was down 1.1%, well short of an expected increase of 0.6% in the month of February due to short term lockdowns in both Western Australia (down 4%) and Victoria (down 6%).

Expected Ranges

EUR/USD: 1.187 - 1.193 ▼

GBP/USD: 1.382 - 1.387 ▲

AUD/USD: 0.770 - 0.775 ▼

USD/CAD: 1.247 - 1.253 ▲