Daily Currency Update

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Dollar bounces after stimulus package

USD - United States Dollar

The day after President Joe Biden signed the $1.9 trillion stimulus package, USDCAD hit a three-year low today. USDCAD was driven by demand for the Canadian dollar and reached $1.25.

It was a different story yesterday. The USD retreated through trade on Thursday, giving up ground to all counterparts bar the haven Japanese yen. The Dollar Index fell a further 0.5% overnight having lost over 1% now through the last three days. Investors returned to equity markets for a moment and the correction in treasury yields seemed to appease.

The story is Canada was all about jobs and relief. The February jobs report signaled economic expansion, with the economy adding 259,000 new jobs in February. Pair this with the benefits of the US stimulus package and CAD was on a hot streak.

Key Movers

The euro edged back toward 1.20, advancing in wake of the ECB’s policy update. The single currency fell to intraday lows at 1.1920 leading into the bank’s monthly update, before pushing toward intraday highs at 1.1990 after ECB president Lagarde promised to frontload bond purchases through the short term. The commitment to increase the pace of bond purchases past the current 60bn helped drive down bond rates. The correction in bond rates coupled with modest long run inflation expectations and a commitment to accommodative monetary policy helped drive risk gains.

The Australian dollar tracked higher through trade on Thursday, pushing through 0.7750 and nearer 0.78 US cents. Improved risk demand helped drive gains across asset classes with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ recording strong gains, dragging the AUD higher. Having bounced off lows at 0.7620, the AUD appears to have staved off any immediate threat of a broader downturn. With price action across bond rates and treasury yields moderating and risk appetite returning, the door is again open for the AUD to make another run toward 0.80 US cents.

Expected Ranges

EUR/USD: 1.191 - 1.198 ▲

GBP/USD: 1.386 - 1.400 ▲

AUD/USD: 0.773 - 0.779 ▲

USD/CAD: 1.248 - 1.256 ▼