Daily Currency Update

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January retail sales smash expectations

USD - United States Dollar

The most productive energy state in the United States has been hit by a massive cold front that has frozen production.

More than a million barrel a day of oil and 10 billion cubic feet of gas have gone offline as Texas managed rolling blackouts and freezing temperatures across most of the state. The energy shortage has pushed demand for US oil up to $60 a barrel for the first time in more than a year.

Meanwhile, demand edged higher for the US dollar. US retail sales, expected to grow 1.1% in January, grew 5.3% as stimulus checks were spent at the start of the year.

Key Movers

EURUSD has struggled to take a direction at the start of this week. It appears to be a case of two struggling currencies meeting each other head on. The dollar has struggled since the second quarter of 2020, as the Federal Reserve cut the US interest rates to record lows after COVID-19 derailed the economy. The euro’s performance has been dampened recently due their lack of progress on a vaccination plan and numerous supply chain issues.

GBPUSD dipped briefly below the $1.39 handle yesterday afternoon. However, the Great British pound made a steady recovery and was trading back above the $1.39 handle by the end of the day. The pair tested highs last seen in April 2018.

The Australian dollar struggled to extend beyond recent ranges, drifting lower overnight having failed to consolidate moves beyond 0.78 US cents. While treasury yields and equities continue to run higher, currency markets offered little to excite investors as the correlation across asset classes weakens.

Expected Ranges

EUR/USD: 1.202 - 1.211 ▲

GBP/USD: 1.284 - 1.392 ▼

AUD/USD: 0.772 - 0.776 ▼

USD/CAD: 1.268 - 1.274 ▲