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Stimulus bill teases markets

USD - United States Dollar

The potential for a COVID-19 vaccine, along with continued talks about a US fiscal stimulus, softened demand for the US dollar. After demand reached its lowest point in over two years against the euro, Great British pound, and Canadian dollar last week, USD has bounced along since then.

The US Dollar Index, which measures the value of USD against the other major currencies, lifted itself over 91 for the first time in over a week. COVID-19’s vaccine, Brexit progress and President-elect Joe Biden’s headlines could be driving currencies without major fundamentals soon.

Key Movers

UK Prime minister Boris Johnson was set to have dinner with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen today to try and find solutions to the remaining issues holding up a post-Brexit trade agreement. The UK government helped the tone after it dropped its clauses within the UK internal market bill. It’s a sign that compromises can be made by Johnson to get the deal over the line. Ahead of the talks we have seen conflicting comments from both the UK and Europe as to whether a deal can be agreed, which has only added to GBP volatility. The pound ranged between 1.3290 - 1.3430 against the US dollar in the past 24 hours and the range against the EUR has been 1.0970 - 1.1070. The top end of these rages will be tested early today, but all will depend on news from Brussels this evening as to whether the pound remains strong into tomorrow.

The Australian dollar drifted back toward 0.74 through trade on Tuesday in what was a largely lackluster session absent of any news outside the current narrative. Ongoing US fiscal stimulus and Brexit negotiations dominated market attentions but offered little to prompt any firm action as both talking points trudge ever so slowly toward an accord. Having touched intraday highs at 0.7435 the AUD trended toward intraday lows at 0.7400 amid a broader negative bias. With little conviction behind the downturn the AUD then bounced between 0.7400 and 0.7420 through the latter half of the overnight session.

Expected Ranges

EUR/USD: 1.207 - 1.214 ▲

GBP/USD: 1.334 - 1.346 ▲

AUD/USD: 0.740 - 0.748 ▲

USD/CAD: 1.277 - 1.282 ▼