Daily Currency Update

Get access to our expert daily market analyses and discover how your currency has been tracking with our exchange rate tools.

A holiday-shortened week in the US might not be an excuse for the US dollar to move strongly in any direction

USD - United States Dollar

IHS Markit Economics released the U.S. flash manufacturing purchasing managers’ index for November. The index rose to 56.7, the highest reading since September 2014, from 53.4 in October. It was 52.6 a year ago.

At the same time, output rose to 58.7, which is the highest reading since March 2015 and higher than the 53.3 reading in October. These numbers propelled the U.S. dollar higher in intraday trading, and they did not negatively affect the equity market, which is usually inversely correlated with the U.S. dollar.

In the political camp, Pennsylvania Republicans filed an emergency request in state court on Sunday seeking to block the certification of election results in favor of President-elect Joe Biden. However, the US dollar did not react to the news.

In a holiday-shortened week, key economic data will be jammed into back-to-back releases on Wednesday including GDP numbers, jobless claims, personal spending, and other key economic data.

Key Movers

Early today, the EUR/USD climbed to a two-week high (since November 9th), trading above the 1.1900 handle, and it reached 1.1906 for around 3 hours before falling to mid 1.1800, when the US trading session started. The move though brings the next resistance level at 1.1920 into focus, which coincides with the U.S. election.

Emerging-market currencies rose for a third week amid optimism over progress towards a coronavirus vaccine. The Mexican Peso, Brazilian Real, South African Rand, Chinese Renminbi, and Indian Rupee rallied 1.5%, 1.38%, 0.71%, 0.66%, and 0.62% versus the Greenback last week. Last night in Asian and European trading sessions, the U.S. dollar declined while global equities climbed, lifted by positive risk sentiment following the vaccine announcement from Astra-Oxford. Today’s session low for the USD/MXN pair was 19.9482, the strongest level for the Mexican Peso since March 6th.

Expected Ranges

USD/CAD: 1.3057 - 1.3128 ▲

EUR/USD: 1.1800 - 1.1845 ▼

GBP/USD: 1.3252 - 1.3329 ▲

AUD/USD: 0.7249 - 0.7295 ▼

NZD/USD: 0.6886 - 0.6929 ▼