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Failed relief bill impacts dollar

USD - United States Dollar

Demand for the US dollar dropped yesterday after the US Senate failed to approve the latest COVID-19 relief bill.

The Federal Reserve called out the government to pass additional funding to prevent further economic hurt. Farmers, like others, have been hit double hard. First it was US trade tensions that imposed tariffs on US produced goods. Then the coronavirus disrupted output to restaurants.

The drop in the value of the US dollar was minimal and it has stayed within a few points of yesterday’s highs and lows. EURUSD was up a tenth of a percent. GBPUSD was down a tenth of a percent. AUDUSD was up nearly a third of a percent. USDCAD was essentially flat.

This morning, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index. The CPI increased 0.4% in August, and it increased for the third month in a row. As consumer prices account for most of the overall inflation, the CPI has influenced the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies.

Key Movers

The European Central Bank provided much to ponder after their meeting yesterday. The euro soared against the US Dollar and Sterling. Inflation proved to be the chink in an otherwise strong European armor, partially bought about by the strength of the euro. It’s clear from Christine Lagarde's comments yesterday that the Eurozone will focus on forcing inflation higher in order to stimulate the economy and create more jobs.

In the last week alone, the Great British pound has fallen almost 3% versus the euro and 5% versus the US dollar. Prime Minister Boris Johnson suggested a hard Brexit, also called a no deal Brexit, could be the inevitable outcome to the 3-year chess match that has been the Brexit negotiations. The government refused to budge on the Internal Market Bill, which, if implemented, could be breaking some fundamental laws according to the European Union. They have given Johnson to the end of the month to amend the bill or suggest the UK will face some serious legal action which isn't exactly autonomous with a smooth and orderly Brexit plan. EURGBP hasn’t traded at this level since March 25 and GBPUSD is at its lowest since July 27.

Volatility across equity markets prompted another run on risk assets. Having maintained a narrow trading band through much of the domestic session, the Australian dollar found support through European trade, running past 0.73 to touch intraday highs at 0.7320, before correcting lower throughout the latter hours of the US session. A risk-off backdrop forced another sell-off across US stocks with Amazon, Apple and Google leading tech losses, while energy stocks plunged amid a drop in oil prices.

Expected Ranges

EUR/USD: 1.181 - 1.188 ▲

GBP/USD: 1.276 - 1.284 ▲

AUD/USD: 0.725 - 0.730 ▲

USD/CAD: 1.315 - 1.32 ▲