Daily Currency Update

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The Greenback is weakening following inflation data results that do not yet reflect impacts of the coronavirus.

USD - United States Dollar

Core inflation in February accelerated ahead of coronavirus-related impacts. It rose by 2.4 percent, which was the greatest increase in the last five months and it is also slightly higher than the 2.3 percent anticipated. Core inflation excludes food and energy costs that are usually volatile. It is important to highlight that this data will be the last release before U.S. economic indicators start to reflect the impact of the coronavirus.

The U.S. dollar is falling 0.38, 0.78, 0.38, and 1.01 percent versus the Euro, Kiwi dollar, Aussie dollar, and the Yen this morning. The only major currencies losing against the Greenback are the Loonie and Norwegian Krone, mostly due to weak crude oil.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he is hoping to provide $ 200 billion or more in liquidity by delaying tax payments. Mnuchin added that he isn’t looking for bailouts, but there may be specific industries that are highly impacted by the decline in travel that may receive assistance.

Key Movers

The Pound versus the U.S. dollar is trading within a choppy range, between 1.2832 and 1.2986. It is trying to find direction in another bearish morning for the markets in North America. Following a unanimous vote at the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), the Bank of England (BOE) made an emergency cut of 50 basis points, from 0.75 percent to 0.25 percent to “contain the virus”. However sophisticated market participants were not surprised because there was a 40 basis points cut already priced in the market, and the Pound had already fallen 2.5 percent since the beginning of the year. The MPC also voted unanimously for the BOE to introduce a new Term Funding scheme with additional incentives for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves. The BOE’s decision comes ahead of the release of the U.K. government budget later today, which is expected to boost spending and mark a coordinated effort by officials to shelter the U.K. economy. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said the central bank is ready to take more action if necessary to defend the economy against the coronavirus outbreak. Carney also said quantitative easing remains part of the BOE toolkit at a press conference early today.

It is interesting to see how the Pound is trading at 1.2948, an increase of 0.29 percent this morning, as it is definitely being driven by a more than expected fiscal stimulus, which could be the biggest fiscal spending in decades and help the Pound positively. The new Chancellor Rishi Sunak will deliver his first and very anticipated budget in a few minutes. Focus for years has been on balancing the books, but the current spending may well change this.

The Loonie falls against all the majors, except for the Norwegian Krone, which is also impacted by crude oil weakening by around 4 percent this morning. The major currencies performing better than the Loonie are the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, Kiwi dollar and Aussie dollar, increasing 1.30, 0.6, 0.90 and 0.47 percent, respectively. The USD/CAD is trading at 1.3758, representing a 0.25 percent increase. Technically speaking, the following key resistance should be at 1.3807 and in the next few weeks, the key resistance might be 1.3969. However, for today, the USD/CAD pair might trade between a range of 1.3683 and 1.3796, provided there are no more surprises or unexpected events in the markets.

Expected Ranges

USD/CAD: 1.3683 - 1.3796 ▲

EUR/USD: 1.1260 - 1.1349 ▼

GBP/USD: 1.2838 - 1.2963 ▼

AUD/USD: 0.6455 - 0.6540 ▲

NZD/USD: 0.6231 - 0.6340 ▲