Having reached a more than 3-year high of 1.2077 on Tuesday, EUR then slipped steadily to reach a low point of 1.2005 first in yesterday’s European session then again in Asia overnight. This morning it has recovered just over half a cent to a best level of 1.2061 after publication of the Eurozone aggregate and individual countries’ PMI services reports.
The final IHS Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Index posted 58.1 in December, up from 57.5 in November, to register its highest reading since February 2011. The headline index has signalled growth for 54 successive months, with the average level during quarter four the best since the opening quarter of 2011. The trend in new business also strengthened in December. Manufacturers saw the steepest increase since April 2000, underpinned by improved domestic demand and near-record growth in new export orders. Service providers, meanwhile, registered the fastest increase in new work for over a decade.
The positive economic environment led to improved business confidence in the euro area. Optimism rose to its best since September, after strengthening to a joint-record high in Germany and three-month highs in France, Spain and Ireland. We said yesterday that “whilst the German data are very impressive, they have rather lost their power to surprise on the upside, given that expectations are already so elevated.” Nonetheless, the Markit Press Release was remarkably upbeat, saying, “A stellar end to 2017 for the eurozone rounded off the best year for over a decade, continuing to confound widely-held fears that rising political uncertainty would curb economic growth… Manufacturing is enjoying its best growth spell since data were first collected over two decades ago while the service sector closed off its best year since 2007.” The language is enough to melt the heart of even a hardened trader !!
The EUR opens in North America this Thursday morning at USD1.2060 and EUR/CAD1.5095.