As the Brexit deadline approaches, there are some key economic and political milestones to take note of in the coming weeks. The reason for this is that global events often have an significant impact on market movements, and it’s important for businesses to be aware of these movements, and how to proactively be prepared to mitigate risk.
6th March – UK Parliament Vote
The Pound continues to fluctuate as talks between the UK and the EU continue and a planned parliamentary vote scheduled for Wednesday 27th February has been pushed back another week to the 6th March while UK Prime Minister Theresa May tries to hammer out an agreement that will be palatable for Brexiteer backbenchers.
7th March – European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision
The rates decision made by the ECB at its March Monetary policy meeting will likely impact EUR movements.
12th March – UK GDP M/M results
The UK GDP monthly release broadly indicates a measure of UK economic activity, and generally speaking, a rising trend would have a positive effect on the GBP, whereas a falling trend would have the opposite effect.
12th, 13th, 14th March – Save the date(s)
UK Prime Minister Theresa May has set a deadline to vote of her second revised (EU backed) Brexit deal: 12th March. Another vote will be scheduled for the 13th March in the event May’s deal is rejected. If this fails, the 14th March will mark a vote on delaying Brexit and extending Article 50.
20th March – US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
As the Board of Governors meet to announce their latest rate decision, a hike could boost USD, and a cut could see the USD weaken.
21st March – Bank of England Interest Rate Decision
Despite the volatility that Brexit is currently causing, these rate decisions still work to keep markets informed of any potential policy changes ahead, regardless of the Brexit outcome.
29th March – Brexit
As the final decision on the Withdrawal Agreement creeps closer, it’s increasingly hard to predict what movements will take place, as it’s still unknown whether it will be a smooth or chaotic exit (if there’s an exit at all). Meaning that whether the pound soars or plummets rests in the hands of those managing the divorce. As a business, planning ahead so to not be dependent on these variables is key.
10th April – ECB Interest Rate Decision
These dates matter to traders because short term interest rates are a primary factor in currency valuation. A high rate would be a positive for the EUR, and a lower rate would be negative.
15th April – China Q1 2019 GDP
Amid the ongoing trade dispute with China and the US, China’s Q4 GDP showed some slowing down with the economy growing 1.5% quarter-on-quarter, comparative to the 1.6% expansion in the previous quarter. This will continue to weigh on economic activity as the March deadline for new tariffs looms.
26th April – US Q1 2019 GDP
It’s likely the recent US government shutdown will have a significant impact on economic growth in the first quarter of 2019.
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