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Kiwi dollar falls on weak CPI data

NZD - New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand dollar is weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback albeit still quite rangebound. All eyes yesterday were on the consumer price index (CPI), which fell 0.5 percent in the June 2020 quarter as the COVID-19 global pandemic saw cheaper petrol, the biggest quarterly fall in petrol prices since the December 2008 quarter, and falling hotel and motel prices which indicated domestic accommodation prices were down by 14 percent in the June 2020 quarter. It was the first fall in quarterly inflation since the December 2015 quarter when there was also a drop of 0.5 percent.

Looking ahead today in New Zealand and we will see the release of Business NZ Manufacturing Index, a survey of manufacturers who rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production and new orders. In the United States tonight we will see the release of monthly Building Permits and Housing Starts. From a technical perspective, the NZD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.6533. We continue to expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.6489, while now any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.6590.

Key Movers

The safe-haven U.S. dollar rose on Thursday afternoon as worries about rising numbers of coronavirus infections spurred a broader risk-off move, pushing U.S. equities lower. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of six rivals, was up for the session 0.35% at 96.350. On the data front yesterday in the United States, Retail Sales figures jumped 7.5% in the month of June, beating the market’s expectations. Although the resurgence in new COVID-19 cases is chipping at the recovery, keeping 32 million Americans on unemployment benefits. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey came in at 24.1 in July, better than the 20 expected. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 10 were a miss, surging to 1.3 million, although Continuing Jobless Claims improved by more than anticipated, printing at 17.338 million in the week ended July 3.

Expected Ranges

NZD/USD: 0.6480 - 0.6630 ▼

NZD/EUR: 0.5620 - 0.5820 ▼

GBP/NZD: 1.9100 - 1.9300 ▲

NZD/AUD: 0.9250 - 0.9450 ▼

NZD/CAD: 0.8750 - 0.8950 ▼