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Kiwi takes back 0.6 level as risk appetites turn optimistic

NZD - New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar ended the week on a positive note, bouncing back more than 1% to open this morning at 0.6028. The about face found the momentum through a shift in market sentiment which saw a broad-based sell off of the Greenback and strong gains in equity markets.

Risk sentiment was buoyed on Friday as President Trump released his roadmap to reopen the US economy as well as news of Gilead Science’ anti-viral drug having some success in combatting COVID-19 in a preliminary trial. While experts are cautious about the preliminary results, the market accepted the news with gusto, prepared to see the results through the lens of a glass half full.

Closer to home, the Kiwi looked to its largest trade partner for direction with China releasing a smorgasbord of data for the market to digest. Chinese GDP kicked things off with a moderately weaker result than expected at -6.8% y/y for Q1. Despite the fall in GDP, the results were somewhat counterbalanced by the positive story from Industrial Production figures which confirmed a strong rebound in activity in March. Chinese leaders are also reported to have pledged to deliver more stimulus with rumours suggesting that this could take the form of an interest rate cut.

Moving into Monday, the Kiwi turns to the release of Q1 CPI domestically, although the report will pre-date the lockdown and hence be of minimal impact.

 

Key Movers

The Euro finds itself under pressure despite the optimism in global markets and cautious move to ease lockdowns. Opening this morning at 1.08703 against the Greenback, the Euro reported a fall for the week but did receive some respite from the broad-based fall in the USD on Friday. Nevertheless the situation in Europe remains terse with Europe flattening the curve but at a frustrating low pace. Adding fuel to the fire is the lack of unity in the political landscape with the Eurozone failing to agree on the issue of Coronabonds.

Oil prices also continued its volatile run last week with prices touching a fresh 18-year low. West Texas intermediate went sub USD18 per barrel at one point with significant excess supply weighing on market sentiment.

Expected Ranges

NZD/AUD: 0.9412 - 0.9546 ▼

NZD/CAD: 0.8402 - 0.8523 ▲

GBP/NZD: 2.0674 - 2.0796 ▲

NZD/EUR: 0.5494 - 0.5598 ▲

NZD/USD: 0.5971 - 0.6086 ▼